000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111544 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Oct 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 13N95W to 08N110W to 12N123W to 09N135W. The ITCZ continues from 09N135W to 09N140W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are from 10N to 16N between 96W and 101W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 118W and 130W, and from 07N to 11N between 126W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from near the Gulf of Tehuantepec southwestward for a couple of hundred miles are associated with a surface trough and Julia's remnants. A surface trough is analyzed from southern Mexico across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the Gulf of Tehuantepec along 94.5W to 11N. fresh to strong N winds are within 60 nm W of the trough axis while fresh to strong SE winds are E of the trough axis mainly from 13N to 15.5N between 91W and 94W. Some gradual development of this system is possible if it remains offshore of southern Mexico while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward through the end of the week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will likely cause flash flooding and mudslides across portions of southern Mexico during the next day or so. Elsewhere, a surface ridge is located west of the Mexico offshore waters, leading to moderate NW winds to the west of Baja California and over the southern Gulf of California. Gentle winds are occurring elsewhere. Seas are 1-2 ft in the northern and central Gulf of California and 5-6 ft elsewhere, except 8-11 ft downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW to N winds will continue to dominate the waters west of Baja California through mid-week under the influence of a ridge, increasing to moderate to fresh Wed night through Thu night. Gentle winds are expected in the Gulf of California with the exception of moderate NW winds across the southern part of the Gulf through Wed night. Looking ahead, some fresh to locally strong S to SW winds appear possible over the northern Gulf of California Fri night into Sat night as a low pressure develops up there. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh S winds are offshore Guatemala and El Salvador with seas of 7-9 ft in mixed SW and N swell. The N swell is from a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, which is subsiding this morning. Similar conditions are occurring well offshore of Nicaragua. Elsewhere, from Costa Rica through Ecuador, gentle S to SW winds prevail with seas of 5-6 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh S winds will continue offshore Guatemala through today before diminishing tonight. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds will develop S of the monsoon trough, offshore of Panama, Colombia and northern Ecuador, Wed through Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough extends from 14N129W to 22N134W. A few showers are near the northern end of the trough while scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted near the southern end of the trough. A ridge extends over the area between this trough and the Baja California peninsula. Latest scatterometer data showed fresh NE to E winds within about 200 nm E of the surface trough. Seas are 6-7 ft in this area per altimeter data. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with 5-7 ft seas. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the N waters through at least mid-week with little change in winds and seas. The aforementioned surface trough will move westward through Wed and dissipate Wed evening. The area of fresh winds will remain east of the surface trough from about 14N to 23N, as it moves westward. Looking ahead, a cold front could reach the NW corner of the area near 30N140W by Sat. $$ GR