000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110848 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Oct 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0820 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N110W to 12N122W to 10N133W. The ITCZ continues from 10N133W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 77W and 80W, from 07N to 11N between 97W and 119W, and from 07N to 11N between 123W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends southward from southern Mexico across the Gulf of Tehuantepec along 94.5W to 11N. A 1007 mb low is analyzed along the trough near 13N94.5W. Fresh to strong N winds are occurring within 90 nm west of the surface trough. Fresh S winds are occurring within 150 nm east of the surface trough. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted west of the trough from 10.5N to 16N between 95.5W and 99W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the trough and within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico. A recent altimeter pass from 11/0400 UTC measured seas of 8 to 9 ft from 13N to 15N between 93.5W and 94W. Winds and seas over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will gradually diminish today and tonight. The 1007 mb low pressure along the surface trough will move westward to west-northwestward through the end of the week. Some gradual development of the system is possible if it remains offshore the southern coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will likely cause flash flooding and mudslides across portions of southern Mexico during the next day or so. Elsewhere, a surface ridge is located west of the Mexico offshore waters, leading to moderate NW winds to the west of Baja California and over the southern Gulf of California. Gentle winds are occurring elsewhere. Seas are 1-2 ft in the northern and central Gulf of California and 5-6 ft elsewhere, except 6-10 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds will continue to dominate the waters west of Baja California through mid-week under the influence of a ridge, increasing to moderate to fresh Wed night through Thu night. Gentle winds are expected in the Gulf of California with the exception of moderate NW winds across the southern part of the Gulf through Wed night. Looking ahead, some fresh to locally strong S to SW winds appear possible over the northern Gulf of California Fri night into Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and tstorms are noted just offshore of Guatemala as well as in the Gulf of Panama area. Moderate to locally fresh S winds are offshore Guatemala and El Salvador with seas of 7-9 ft in mixed SW and N swell. The N swell is from a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, which is subsiding this morning. Similar conditions are occurring well offshore of Nicaragua. Elsewhere, from Costa Rica through Ecuador, gentle winds prevail with seas of 5-6 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh S winds will continue offshore Guatemala through today before diminishing tonight. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds will develop S of the monsoon trough, offshore of Panama, Colombia and northern Ecuador, Wed through Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough extends from 13N127W to 20N133W to 27N135W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 121W and 126W. A high pressure ridge extends over the area between this trough and Mexico. An ASCAT satellite wind data pass from 11/0622 UTC shows fresh NE to E winds within 240 nm E of the surface trough. Seas are likely 6-7 ft in this area. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with 5-7 ft seas. The exception is north of 05N and east of 100W, where seas are 7-9 ft in mixed N and SW swell. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the N waters through at least mid-week with little change in winds and seas. The aforementioned surface trough will move westward through Wed and dissipate Wed evening. The area of fresh winds will remain east of the surface trough from about 14N to 23N, as it moves westward. Looking ahead, a cold front could reach the NW corner of the area near 30N140W by Sat. $$ Hagen