000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110332
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Oct 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N99W to 10N110W to 12N119W to
10N134W. The ITCZ continues from 10N134W to 09N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 95W and
110W and from 07N to 13N between 130W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Julia dissipated at 10/2100 UTC. Northerly winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec have diminished below gale force, but remain strong 
to near gale force at this time. Peak seas there have subsided to
11 ft.

A surface trough extends southwestward from 15N93W to 1006 mb 
low pres near 14N93W to 12N94W. Scattered strong convection is
noted west of the surface trough from 11N to 15N between 93.5W
and 97.5W.

A surface ridge extends just west of the Mexico offshore waters,
leading to moderate NW winds to the west of Baja California and 
from the southern Gulf of California to the Cabo Corrientes area.
Gentle winds are occurring elsewhere, outside of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Seas are 1-2 ft in the northern and central Gulf of 
California and 5-6 ft elsewhere, except 7-11 ft in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region.

For the forecast, winds and seas over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
region will gradually diminish on Tuesday. Gentle to moderate NW
to N winds will continue to dominate the waters west of Baja 
California through mid-week under the influence of a ridge, 
increasing to moderate to fresh Wed night through Thu night. 
Gentle winds are expected in the Gulf of California with the 
exception of moderate NW winds across the southern part of the 
Gulf through Wed night. A new area of low pressure could form
just south of the coast of southern Mexico in a day or two. Some
subsequent gradual development of the new system is possible 
while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward near the 
coast of Mexico through the end of the week. There is a low
chance for tropical cyclone formation through the next 5 days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Showers and thunderstorms left over from the remnant surface
trough that was once associated with Julia have mostly left
Central America and are now over southern Mexico. However,
additional scattered showers are noted over portions of southern
Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate to locally fresh S winds are
offshore Guatemala and El Salvador tonight with seas of 7-9 ft in
mixed SW and N swell. The N swell is from a Gulf of Tehuantepec
gap wind event. Similar conditions are occurring well offshore of
Nicaragua. Elsewhere, from Costa Rica through Ecuador, gentle
winds prevail with seas of 5-6 ft in S to SW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh S winds will continue
offshore Guatemala through Tue before diminishing Tue night.
Moderate to locally fresh SW winds will develop S of the monsoon
trough, well south of Panama, and west of Colombia and northern
Ecuador, Wed through Thu. Renewed long period S to SW swell will
reach the waters off South America Thu and Central America Thu 
night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough extends from 13N124W to 18N130W to 25N131W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
12.5N to 17.5N between 119W and 126W. A high pressure ridge noses
through the area to the east of this surface trough. Fresh NE to
E winds are likely occurring within 240 nm E of the surface
trough, where seas are likely 6-7 ft. Elsewhere, winds are 
moderate or weaker with 5-7 ft seas. The exception is north of
05N and east of 100W, where seas are 7-9 ft due to N swell from a
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the N waters
through at least mid-week with little change in winds and seas.
The aforementioned surface trough will move westward over the
next 48 hours while dissipating. The area of fresh winds will
remain east of the surface trough from about 14N to 22N, as it 
moves westward. Looking ahead, a cold front could reach the NW 
corner of the area near 30N140W by Sat.

$$
Hagen