000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102116 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Oct 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The National Hurricane Center issued the last advisory on Julia at 10/2100 UTC. At this time, its remnants are centered near 15.0N 91.6W at 10/2100 UTC moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. A portion of its remnants are expected to move westward and could contribute to the formation of a new area of low pressure just south of the coast of southern Mexico in another day or two. Some subsequent gradual development of the new system will be possible while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward near the coast of Mexico through the end of the week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of Julia interacting with a broader area of low pressure will likely cause flash flooding and mudslides across portions of southern Mexico and northern Central America during the next few days. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge over the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico continues to support minimal gale force northerly winds across the Tehuantepec region with seas of 9 to 13 ft. These winds are expected to diminish below gale force by this evening. Then, strong to near gale force N winds will continue through tonight. Winds will diminish to fresh to locally strong Tue, with improving conditions Tue night as the pressure gradient relaxes. As the winds continue to diminish, expect subsiding seas. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N100W to 12N122W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 90W and 93W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed within 60 nm of a line from 11N93W to 09N96W to 10.5N99W, from 12N to 17N between 116W and 126W, and from 08N to 12N between 129W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and on T.D. Julia, located over southern Guatemala. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, and mainly moderate winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Los Cabos. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. Light to gentle NW winds are noted per scatterometer data in the north and central Gulf of California, except for gentle to moderate northerly winds in the southern part of the Gulf. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail across the Gulf of California, with the exception of 3-5 ft near the entrance of the Gulf. Elsewhere along the coast of Mexico outside of the Tehuantepec region, light to gentle westerly winds prevail, with seas of 4-6 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW to N winds will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through mid-week under the influence of a ridge, increasing to moderate to fresh Wed night through Thu night. Gentle winds are expected in the Gulf of California with the exception of moderate NW winds across the southern part of the Gulf through Wed night. Looking ahead, a portion of the remnants of Julia is expected to move westward and could contribute to the formation of a new area of low pressure just south of the coast of southern Mexico in another day or two. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The remnants of Julia continue to move across southern Guatemala. A recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong S to SW winds across the offshore waters of El Salvador. Seas are 8 to 9 ft within these winds. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas of 6-7 ft are noted across the offshore waters of Nicaragua. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere, off Costa Rica, Panama and South America, where seas are 5-6 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, the remnants of Julia will dissipate by Tue morning. Seas of 8-10 ft will continue over the waters offshore Guatemala and El Salvador through Tue before subsiding Tue night into Wed. Elsewhere mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail with seas of 4-6 ft in SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure well N of the area extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters. A surface trough extends from 25N129W to 18N128W to 13N122W. A few showers are near the northern end of the trough while scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of the trough axis. The pressure gradient between the ridge to the N and the trough supports an area of moderate to fresh NE winds from 14N to 22N between 120W and 126W. Seas are 6-8 ft within these winds. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the N waters through at least mid-week with little change in winds and seas. The aforementioned surface trough will move westward over the next 48 hours while dissipating $$ GR