000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101541 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Oct 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Julia was downgraded to a Tropical Depression over southern Guatemala at 1500 UTC. At this time, it is centered near 14.1N 90.3W at 10/1500 UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 89W and 93W, including over portions of El Salvador and southern Guatemala. On the forecast track, the center of Julia will move over southern Guatemala today. Julia is forecast to dissipate this evening. Its remnants are expected to continue westward and could contribute to the formation of a new area of low pressure just south of the coast of southern Mexico in another day or two. Some subsequent gradual development of the new system will be possible while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward near the coast of Mexico through the end of the week. Heavy rainfall will continue to impact Central America and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico through Tue. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Julia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge over the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico continues to support gale force northerly winds across the Tehuantepec region. Gale force winds of 35 kt are expected to persist downwind of the Gulf to about 14N through this afternoon, with seas to 14 ft. Strong to near gale force N winds will then continue through tonight. Winds will diminish to fresh to locally strong Tue, with improving conditions Tue night as the pressure gradient relaxes. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N98W to 13N122W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 95W and 100W, from 10N to 17N between 115W and 130W, and from 07N to 10N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and on T.D. Julia, located over southern Guatemala. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California producing moderate NW winds. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. Light to gentle winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California, except for moderate northerly winds in the southern part of the Gulf. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail across the Gulf of California, with the exception of 3-5 ft near the entrance of the Gulf. Near Cabo Corrientes, moderate to fresh NW to N winds are likely occurring. Elsewhere along the coast of Mexico outside of the Tehuantepec region, gentle to moderate NW winds prevail, with seas of 4-6 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW to N winds will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through mid-week under the influence of a ridge, increasing to moderate to fresh Wed night through Thu night. Gentle winds are expected in the Gulf of California with the exception of moderate NW winds across the southern part of the Gulf through mid-week. Looking ahead, a new area of low pressure, associated with the remnant low of Julia, could form just south of the coast of southern Mexico in another day or two. Some subsequent gradual development of the new system will be possible while it moves generally westward to west- northwestward near the coast of Mexico through the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Julia located over southern Guatemala. Fresh to strong sw to W winds and high seas up to 10 ft associated with Julia are currently affecting the offshore waters of El Salvador and SE Guatemala. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 7-9 ft are noted across the offshore waters of Nicaragua. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail offshore of Costa Rica. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere, off Panama and South America, where seas are 5-6 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, Julia will become a remnant low and move to 15.2N 92.0W this evening, and dissipate Tue morning. Seas will gradually subside across the offshore waters of Nicaragua today. Seas of 8-10 ft will then continue over the waters offshore Guatemala and El Salvador through Tue before subsiding Tue night into Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure well N of the area extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters. A surface trough extends from 23N129W to 14N123W. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough between 90W and 110W, along with seas of 6-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail in the remaining waters. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the N waters through at least mid-week with little change in winds and seas. $$ GR