000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100935 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Oct 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Julia is centered near 13.4N 89.2W at 10/0900 UTC or about 15 nm south of San Salvador, El Salvador, moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 87W and 92W, including over portions of El Salvador, southern Guatemala and SW Honduras. Julia is forecast to move inland over western El Salvador and southern Guatemala, and weaken to a tropical depression early this afternoon near 14.3N 91.0W. Julia should dissipate tonight. Heavy rainfall will continue to impact Central America and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico through Tue. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Julia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge over the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico continues to support gale force northerly winds across the Tehuantepec region. Gale force winds of 35 kt are expected to persist downwind of the Gulf to about 14N through this afternoon, with seas to 14 ft. Strong to near gale force N winds will then continue through tonight. Winds will diminish to fresh to locally strong Tue, with improving conditions Tue night as the pressure gradient relaxes. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N93W to 08N105W to 14N122W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 104W and 110W, from 10N to 17N between 115W and 130W, and from 07N to 11N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and on T.S. Julia, located just offshore of the coast of El Salvador. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California producing moderate NW winds. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. Light to gentle winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California, except for moderate northerly winds in the southern part of the Gulf. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail across the Gulf of California, with the exception of 3-5 ft near the entrance of the Gulf. Near Cabo Corrientes, moderate to fresh NW to N winds are likely occurring. Elsewhere along the coast of Mexico outside of the Tehuantepec region, gentle to moderate NW winds prevail, with seas of 4-6 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW to N winds will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through mid-week under the influence of a ridge, increasing to moderate to fresh Wed night through Thu night. Gentle winds are expected in the Gulf of California with the exception of moderate NW winds across the southern part of the Gulf through mid-week. Looking ahead, a new area of low pressure could form offshore the coast of southern Mexico by mid-week. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system by the middle to latter part of this week as this system moves toward the west-northwest. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Julia located just offshore of El Salvador. Strong winds and high seas up to 12 ft associated with Julia are currently affecting waters offshore El Salvador and NW Nicaragua. Winds are moderate offshore Guatemala with 7-8 ft seas, in between Julia and the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event. Moderate SW winds prevail offshore of Costa Rica with 6-7 ft seas. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere, off Panama and South America, where seas are 5-6 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Julia will weaken to a tropical depression by early this afternoon near 14.3N 91.0W and dissipate tonight. Seas of 8-12 ft associated with Julia will spread over the waters offshore El Salvador and eastern Guatemala this morning before moving inland and weakening. Seas of 8-9 ft will then continue over the waters offshore Guatemala and El Salvador through Tue before subsiding Tue night into Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure well N of the area extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters. A surface trough extends along 127W from 16N-21N. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough between 90W and 110W, along with seas of 6-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail in the remaining waters. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the N waters through at least mid-week with little change in winds and seas. $$ Hagen