000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100336 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Oct 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Julia is centered over the Pacific Ocean near 12.8N 88.1W at 10/0300 UTC or about 20 nm offshore the coast of eastern El Salvador, moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 10.5N to 13.5N between 87W and 91W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 06.5N to 16N between 86W and 95W. Julia is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression early Mon morning and dissipate by Mon evening as it moves westward to west-northwestward, very near the coast of El Salvador and eastern Guatemala. Heavy rainfall will continue to impact Central America and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico through Tue. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across Central America through Monday. Flash flooding is anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Julia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge over the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico supports a gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region. Gale force winds of 30-40 kt are expected to persist downwind of the Gulf to about 13N-14N through Mon afternoon, with seas building to 15 ft tonight. Fresh to strong winds will then persist in the region through Tue before improving Tue night as the pressure gradient relaxes. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N94W to 08N101W to 12N119W to 08N135W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 112W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and on T.S. Julia, located just offshore of eastern El Salvador. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to locally moderate northerly winds. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. Light to gentle winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California, except for moderate northerly winds in the southern part of the Gulf. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail across the Gulf of California, with the exception of 3-5 ft near the entrance of the Gulf. Elsewhere along the coast of Mexico, outside of the Tehuantepec region, gentle to moderate NW winds prevail, with seas of 4-6 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW to N winds will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California most of the work-week under the influence of a ridge, with seas of 4-6 ft. Gentle winds are expected in the Gulf of California with the exception of gentle to moderate NW winds across the southern part of the Gulf through mid-week. Marine conditions are forecast to improve across the Tehuantepec region by mid-week. Looking ahead, a surface trough or possibly an area of low pressure could form by Thu offshore Guerrero or Michoacan. Strong winds and building seas are possible as this system moves toward the west- northwest through late week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Julia located just offshore of eastern El Salvador. Strong winds and high seas up to 11 ft associated with Julia are currently affecting waters offshore El Salvador and Nicaragua. Winds are gentle to moderate offshore Guatemala with 6-8 ft seas, in between Julia and the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event. Moderate SW winds prevail offshore of Costa Rica with 6-7 ft seas. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere, off Panama and South America, where seas are 4-6 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Julia will weaken to a tropical depression Mon morning near 13.4N 90.1W and dissipate Mon evening. Seas of 8-11 ft associated with Julia will spread over the waters offshore El Salvador and eastern Guatemala tonight and early Mon before merging with the area of seas higher than 8 ft associated with the current Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event. Seas of 8-9 ft will then continue over the waters offshore Guatemala and El Salvador through Tue night before subsiding Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure well N of the area extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters. A surface trough extends along 127W from 15N-21N. Scattered showers are on either side of the trough axis. Moderate southerly winds are noted south of the monsoon trough, along with seas of 6-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail in the remaining waters. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the N waters through at least mid-week with little change in winds and seas. $$ Hagen