000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092135 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Oct 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Julia is about to move off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua. It is centered near 12.4N 86.9W at 09/2100 UTC moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 12.5N between 87W and 90W. Numerous moderate convection is elsewhere from 10N to 13N E of 90W. On the forecast track, the center of Julia will move off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua soon and then move close to and parallel to the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala tonight and on Monday. Julia is expected to remain a tropical storm near the Pacific coast of Central America through early Monday, and it is expected to dissipate by Monday night. Heavy rainfall will continue to impact Central America and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across Central America through Monday. Flash flooding is anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Julia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge over the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico supports a gap winds event across the Tehuantepec region. Gale force winds of 30-40 kt are expected to persist downwind of the Gulf to about 13N-14N through late Mon, with seas building to 14 or 15 ft tonight. A recent scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of minimal gale force winds, and also provided observations of fresh northerly winds reaching as far south as 11.5N92W. Conditions are expected to improve on Tue as the pressure gradient across the area relaxes. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. Of note, the 20-year climatology of the Tehuantepec gap wind events indicates that on average 16 gale-force events and 5 storm-events occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec per cold season. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N95W to 12N120W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 110W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and on T.S. Julia expected to enter the eastern Pacific region in a few hours. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to locally moderate northerly winds. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range per altimeter data. Light to gentle winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California, except gentle to moderate northerly winds in the southern part of the Gulf. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail across the Gulf of California, with the exception of 3-4 ft near the entrance of the Gulf. Elsewhere along the coast of Mexico, outside of the Tehuantepec region, gentle NW winds prevail, with seas of 4-5 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW to N winds will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California most of the work-week under the influence of a ridge, with seas of 4-6 ft. Gentle winds are expected in the Gulf of California with the exception of gentle to moderate NW winds across the southern part of the Gulf through mid-week. Marine conditions are forecast to improve across the Tehuantepec region by mid-week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Julia expected to enter the eastern Pacific region in a few hours. Fresh to strong westerly winds are noted across the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to El Salvador, including the Gulfs of Fonseca and Papagayo due to the large cyclonic circulation of Julia. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SW winds are present over the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Colombia, including the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere offshore Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 5-7 ft in S-SW swell across most of the area. Seas of 8-9 ft are seen over the far western Guatemala offshore waters in N swell due to the influence of the gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Julia near 12.4N 86.9W 998 mb at 2 PM PDT moving W at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Julia will move to 12.8N 88.7W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 13.6N 90.7W Mon afternoon, and dissipate Tue morning. As Julia moves into the eastern Pacific waters, seas will build to 10 or 11 ft across the offshore waters of Nicaragua. Seas of 8-11 ft generated in the Tehuantepec region will continue to propagate across the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala tonight and Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure well N of the area extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters. A surface trough extends along 120W from 10N-18N. Scattered showers are on either side of the trough axis. Moderate winds are occurring near this trough with seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are also noted south of the monsoon trough, along with seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail in the remaining waters. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the N waters through at least mid-week with little change in winds and seas. $$ GR