000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091551 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Oct 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Julia is now moving over Nicaragua. It is centered near 12.4N 85.4W at 09/1500 UTC or 60 nm ENE of Managua Nicaragua moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to continue moving over Nicaragua today and emerge off the Pacific coast by this evening. Julia is then expected to move very near to and parallel to the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala tonight and Monday. Julia is still expected to be a tropical storm when it moves near the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador tonight and Monday. Julia is forecast to dissipate near the coast of Guatemala by Monday night. Heavy rainfall is expected to impact Central America and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across Central America today and Monday. Flash flooding is anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over the Gulf of Tehuantepec is supporting strong to gale-force northerly winds. Seas in these waters are 8-13 ft. Gale force winds will prevail through late Mon while seas build to 11-15 ft, primarily today through Mon. Conditions are expected to improve on Tue as the gradient relaxes. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N95W to 1009 mb low pressure located near 12N118W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 110W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and on T.S. Julia moving across Nicaragua. The subtropical ridge is positioned well north of the eastern tropical Pacific, extending weakly southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern supports gentle to locally moderate northerly winds across the waters off Baja California, and elsewhere outside of the Tehuantepec region. Seas are 4-6 ft across this area. Light to gentle winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California with gentle to moderate northerly winds in the southern Gulf. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail across the Gulf of California north of the entrance. For the forecast, a prolonged gap wind event continue across the Tehuantepec region through Mon night. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the remainder of the area through midweek. Tropical Storm Julia, currently over Nicaragua, is forecast to enter the Eastern Pacific basin by this evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Julia currently moving over Nicaragua. Fresh to strong winds with seas to 8 ft are noted in the Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters due to the influence of the monsoon trough and Julia. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are found in the Papagayo region to about 89W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SW winds are present across the Gulf of Panama and offshore Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere offshore Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 5-7 ft in S-SW swell across most of the area. Seas are approaching 8 ft near the far western Guatemala offshore waters in N swell due to the influence of the gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Julia will move to 12.5N 87.5W this evening, 13.2N 89.6W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 14.0N 91.9W Mon evening, and dissipate Tue morning. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough to the Equator through Mon night, then gentle to moderate through midweek. Seas in the 5-7 ft range in S-SW will remain prevalent. Seas will build to around 8 ft offshore Guatemala today and continue into Mon due to a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure well N of the area extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters. A surface trough extends from 22N120W to a 1009 mb low pressure located near 12N118W. Moderate winds are occurring near this trough with seas 5-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are also noted south of the monsoon trough, along with seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail in the remaining waters. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will remain the dominant feature across the northern waters with little change in winds and seas through next week. $$ GR