000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090959 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Oct 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Julia has made landfall and is centered near 12.4N 84.0W at 09/0900 UTC or 30 nm NNW of Bluefields Nicaragua, moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is impacting the Central American offshore waters from 08N to 13N and E of 92W. The center of Julia is expected to move across Nicaragua today and emerge over the eastern Pacific by tonight. Julia is then forecast to move near or along the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala on Monday and Monday night. Weakening is expected today as Julia moves over Nicaragua, but it is still forecast to be a tropical storm when it emerges off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua by tonight. Julia is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Monday night and dissipate by Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is expected to impact Central America in addition to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. This rainfall may cause life- threatening flash floods and mudslides across Central America today and Monday. Flash flooding is anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over the Gulf of Tehuantepec is supporting strong to gale-force northerly winds. Seas in these waters are 8-13 ft. Gale force winds will prevail through late Mon while seas build to 11-15 ft, primarily today through Mon. Conditions are expected to improve on Tue as the gradient relaxes. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N88W to 09N106W to 11N118W to 07N134W. The ITCZ extends from 07N134W to 09N140W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N and E of 91W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 91W and 104W and from 07N to 13N between 113W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and on Hurricane Julia in eastern Nicaragua. The subtropical ridge is positioned well north of the eastern tropical Pacific, extending weakly southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern supports gentle to locally moderate northerly winds across the waters off Baja California, and elsewhere outside of the Tehuantepec region. Seas are 4-6 ft across this area. Light to gentle winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California with gentle to moderate northerly winds in the southern Gulf. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail across the Gulf of California north of the entrance. For the forecast, a prolonged gap wind event continue across the Tehuantepec region through Mon night. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the remainder of the area through midweek. The remnants of Hurricane Julia, currently in eastern Nicaragua, may move across the waters offshore Tehuantepec Mon into Tue, continuing to move W-NW offshore southern or southwestern Mexico. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week in association with the remnants, with 3-6 inches, isolated 10 inches, currently forecast. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Julia east of the basin in eastern Nicaragua. Fresh to strong winds with seas to 8 ft are noted in the Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters due to the influence of the monsoon trough and Hurricane Julia. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are found in the Papagayo region to about 89W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SW winds are present across the Gulf of Panama and offshore Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere offshore Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 5-7 ft in S-SW swell across most of the area. Seas are approaching 8 ft near the far western Guatemala offshore waters in N swell due to the influence of the gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, Hurricane Julia is east of the area near 12.4N 84.0W 982 mb at 5 AM EDT moving W at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. Julia will move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 12.5N 86.2W this afternoon, 12.7N 88.8W Mon morning, 13.3N 91.4W Mon afternoon, weaken to a tropical depression near 14.1N 93.3W Tue morning, and dissipate Tue afternoon. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough to the Equator through Mon night, then gentle to moderate through midweek. Seas in the 5-7 ft range in S-SW will remain prevalent. Seas will build to around 8 ft offshore Guatemala today and continue into Mon due to a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak pressure regime continues across the eastern tropical Pacific as the ridge remains well north of the region. A surface trough, remnants of former Tropical Storm Paine, extends from 21N121W to 18N122W. Moderate winds are occurring near this trough with seas 5-6 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, a 1009 mb low is located near 16N138W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are present N of the low from 17N to 21N and between 134W and 140W, supporting seas of 6-9 ft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are also noted south of the monsoon trough, along with seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail in the remaining waters. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will remain the dominant feature across the northern waters with little change in winds and seas through next week. The remnants of Paine are forecast to gradually dissipate over the next few days. The seas associated with the 1009 mb low will subside by Mon night. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are then expected across the open waters through midweek. $$ AReinhart