000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090415 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Oct 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Julia is centered near 12.5N 82.7W at 09/0300 UTC or 60 nm W of San Andres Island, Colombia moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted across the Central American offshore waters due to the outer bands of Julia from 06N to 13N and W of 89W. Julia will continue to have westward motion with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to move near or along the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala Monday and Monday night. Julia is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it moves off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua late Sunday or Sunday night. Julia should weaken to a tropical depression on Monday and dissipate by Monday night or Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is expected from Nicaragua to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. This rainfall may cause life- threatening flash floods and mudslides through this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over the Gulf of Tehuantepec is supporting strong to gale-force northerly winds as indicated by ASCAT scatterometer data from earlier today. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. Gale force winds will prevail through late Mon or early Tue and seas will build to 11-15 ft, primarily Sun afternoon through early Tue. Conditions are expected to improve on Tue as the gradient relaxes. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 09N104W to 11N114W to a 1010 mb low near 10N129W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 85W and 94W, with some of this being influenced by Tropical Storm Julia. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 07N to 13N between 110W and 126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and on Tropical Storm Julia in the Caribbean Sea east of Central America. The subtropical ridge is positioned well north of the eastern tropical Pacific, extending weakly southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern supports gentle to moderate northerly winds across the waters off Baja California, and elsewhere outside of the Tehuantepec region. Seas are 4-6 ft across this area. Light to gentle winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California with gentle to moderate northerly winds in the southern Gulf. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail across the Gulf of California north of the entrance. For the forecast, a prolonged gap wind event will be present across the Tehuantepec region through early Tue, with gale force winds pulsing through late Mon or early Tue. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the remainder of the area through early next week. The remnants of Tropical Storm Julia, currently in the Caribbean Sea, may move across the waters offshore Tehuantepec by mid-week, continuing to move W-NW offshore southern or southwestern Mexico. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week in association with the remnants, with 2-4 inches, isolated 6 inches, currently forecast. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Julia east of the basin in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are found in the Papagayo region to about 89W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SW winds are noted south of 08N. Light to gentle variable winds are present elsewhere north of 08N. Seas are 5-7 ft in S-SW swell across most of the area, with seas approaching 8 ft near the far western Guatemala offshore waters in N swell due to the influence of the gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds are expected in the Papagayo region through tonight. Hurricane Julia is east of the area near 12.5N 82.7W 988 mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Julia will move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 12.5N 84.7W Sun morning, 12.6N 87.5W Sun evening, 13.0N 90.1W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 13.4N 92.8W Mon evening, and dissipate Tue morning. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough to the Equator this early next week, then gentle to moderate next week. Seas in the 5-7 ft range in S-SW will remain prevalent. Seas will build to around 8 ft offshore Guatemala on Sun morning and continue into early next week due to a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak pressure regime continues across the eastern tropical Pacific as the ridge remains well north of the region. A surface trough, remnants of former Tropical Storm Paine, extends from 22N121W to 19N122W. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring on the north side of the surface trough. Seas in these waters are 5-6 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, a 1009 mb low is located near 17N137W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are present near the low from 15N to 22N and between 131W and 139W, supporting seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are also noted south of the monsoon trough, along with seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail in the remaining waters. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will remain the dominant feature across the northern waters with little change in winds and seas through next week. The remnants of Paine are forecast to gradually dissipate over the next few days. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are then expected across the open waters this weekend into early next week. $$ AReinhart