000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082052 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Oct 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Julia is in the Caribbean Sea east of Central America near 12.6N 81.3W at 08/2100 UTC or 50 nm S of Isla De Providencia Colombia moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Environmental conditions favor strengthening this evening and tonight before Julia reaches the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua, especially if the recent burst of deep convection can remain near or over the center. As such, Julia is still forecast to become a hurricane within the next 12 hours. After landfall, fast weakening is expected, but Julia is forecast to be at or near tropical storm strength when it emerges off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua due to its fast transit across the country. Even if it does survive, the global models generally show the circulation dissipating or becoming absorbed by a broader area of low pressure associated with a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, and that should occur by Mon night. Regardless of Julia's track and existence as a tropical cyclone, the evolving set up is likely to lead to heavy rains over Central America for several days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over the Gulf of Tehuantepec is supporting strong to gale-force northerly winds as indicated by recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Gale force winds will prevail through late Mon or early Tue and seas will build to 11-14 ft, primarily late Sun through early Tue. Conditions are expected to improve on Tue as the gradient relaxes. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 07N98W to 11N111W to 09N127W to a 1012 mb low pressure area near 17N136W to 12N140W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is present in satellite imagery from 07N to 12N between 87W and 102W, from 09N to 12N between 109W and 115W, and from 09N to 12N between 128W and 131W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 123W and 126W, and from 15.5N to 17.5N between 133W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and on Tropical Storm Julia in the Caribbean Sea east of Central America. The subtropical ridge is positioned well north of the eastern tropical Pacific, extending weakly southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern supports light to locally moderate northerly winds across the waters off Baja California, an elsewhere outside of the Tehuantepec region. Seas are 4-6 ft across this area. Light to locally moderate northerly winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail in the Gulf of California north of the entrance. For the forecast, a prolonged gap wind event will be present across the Tehuantepec region through early Tue, with gale force winds pulsing through late Mon or early Tue. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the remainder of the area through early next week. The remnants of Tropical Storm Julia, currently in the Caribbean Sea, may move across the waters offshore Tehuantepec by mid-week, continuing W-NW offshore southern or southwestern Mexico. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week in association with the remnants, with 2-4 inches, isolated 6 inches, currently forecast. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Julia east of the basin in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are found in the Papagayo region to about 89W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SW winds are noted south of 08N. Light to gentle variable winds are present elsewhere north of 08N. Seas are 5-7 ft in S-SW swell south of 08N, and 4-6 ft north of 08N. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds are expected in the Papagayo region through tonight. Tropical Storm Julia will strengthen to a hurricane east of the area near 12.5N 83.3W Sun morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 12.6N 86.0W Sun afternoon, move offshore near the Gulf of Fonseca near 12.8N 88.7W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical depression near southern Guatemala near 13.3N 91.3W Mon afternoon, and dissipate Tue morning. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough to the Equator this weekend, then gentle to moderate next week. Seas in the 5-7 ft range in S-SW will remain prevalent, building to around 8 ft offshore Guatemala this weekend into early next week due to a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak pressure regime continues across the eastern tropical Pacific as the ridge remains well north of the region. A surface trough, remnants of former Tropical Storm Paine, extends from 21N120W to 16N122W. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring on the north side of the surface trough. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate to fresh NE winds are present from 15N to 22N and between 131W and 139W, supporting seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are also noted south of the monsoon trough, along with seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail in the remaining waters. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will remain the dominant feature across the northern waters with little change in winds and seas through next week. The remnants of Paine are forecast to gradually dissipate over the next few days. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are then expected across the open waters this weekend into early next week. $$ Lewitsky