000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081457 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Oct 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1420 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Julia is in the Caribbean Sea east of Central America near 12.6N 79.9W at 08/1500 UTC or 100 nm ESE of Isla De Providencia Colombia moving W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Outer scattered moderate convection associated with Julia extends across the area from portions of Colombia northward to Nicaragua, as well as within 240 nm offshore into the Pacific Ocean. Due to Julia's more southern and faster track, there is increasing global model support that the cyclone will be able to maintain a well-defined center and circulation while it crosses Central America, and it could also still be at tropical storm intensity when it reaches the Pacific side of Central America. However, even if it survives the crossing, most of the guidance shows the circulation becoming more diffuse or dissipating over the Pacific waters in 2 to 3 days. Based on the updated NHC forecast, and to account for the possibility of tropical-storm-force winds along the Pacific coast of Central America, tropical storm warnings and watches have been issued for the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador. Regardless of Julia's track and existence as a tropical cyclone, the evolving set up is likely to lead to heavy rains over Central America for several days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over the Gulf of Tehuantepec is supporting strong to gale-force northerly winds. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Gale-force winds will prevail through late Mon or early Tue and seas will build to 11-13 ft, primarily late Sun through early Tue. Conditions are expected to improve on Tue as the gradient relaxes. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N85W to 07N95W to 11N111W to a 1009 mb low pressure area near 09N126W to a 1009 mb low pressure area near 15N135W to 12N140W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is present in satellite imagery from 05N to 10N between 95W and 102W, from 09N to 11N between 108W and 112W, from 13N to 15N between 122W and 124W, from 10N to 12N between 127W and 129W, and from 15N to 17N between 133W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The subtropical ridge is positioned well north of the eastern tropical Pacific, extending weakly southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern supports light to locally moderate northerly winds across the waters off Baja California, an elsewhere outside of the Tehuantepec region. Seas are 4-6 ft across this area. Light to locally moderate northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, a prolonged gap wind event will be present across the Tehuantepec region through early Tue, with gale force winds pulsing through early Tue. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the remainder of the area through early next week. The remnants of Tropical Storm Julia currently in the Caribbean Sea may move across the waters offshore Tehuantepec by mid-week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Julia east of the basin in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are found in the Papagayo region to about 88W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SW winds are noted south of 07N, locally strong offshore northern Colombia and near the Azuero Peninsula. Light to gentle variable winds are present north of 07N. Seas are 5-7 ft in S-SW swell south of 07N, and 4-6 ft north of 07N. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds are expected in the Papagayo region this weekend. However, winds and seas in this region will be dependent on the exact track of Atlantic Tropical Storm Julia. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough to the Equator this weekend. Seas in the 5-7 ft range in S-SW will remain prevalent, building to around 8 ft offshore Guatemala this weekend into early next week due to a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak pressure regime continues across the eastern tropical Pacific as the ridge remains well north of the region. A surface trough, remnants of former Tropical Storm Paine, is along 120W-121W and extends from 16N to 21N. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring on the north side of the surface trough. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate to fresh NE winds are present from 14N to 21N and between 130W and 139W, supporting seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are also noted south of the monsoon trough, along with seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail in the remaining waters. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will remain the dominant feature across the northern waters with little change in winds and seas through next week. The remnants of Paine are forecast to gradually dissipate over the next few days. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are then expected across the open waters this weekend into early next week. $$ Lewitsky