000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080946 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Oct 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0855 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over the Gulf of Tehuantepec is supporting strong to gale-force northerly winds. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured a large region of strong to near gale-force northerly winds. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. Gale-force winds will prevail through late Mon or early Tue and seas will build to 11-13 ft, primarily late Sun through early Tue. Conditions are expected to improve on Tue as the gradient relaxes. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 08N94W to 11N110W to a 1010 mb low pres near 09N124W to a 1009 mb low pres near 15N134W to 12N140W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is present in satellite imagery from 03N to 12N and E of 105W, and from 06N to 17N and between 107W and 128W. A few showers are also present near the areas of low pressure. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The subtropical ridge is positioned well north of the eastern tropical Pacific, extending weakly southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern supports light to locally moderate northerly winds across the waters off Baja California, along with seas of 4-6 ft. The remnants of Paine continue to move away from the region and are not affecting these waters. Light to locally moderate northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail in the Gulf of California. Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light and variable winds are occurring in the remaining offshore waters of Mexico. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. For the forecast, a prolonged gap wind event will be present across the Tehuantepec region through early Tue, with gale force winds pulsing through early Tue. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the remainder of the area through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds are found in the Papagayo region to about 88W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SW winds are noted S of 07N, as captured by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Light to gentle SW winds are present north of 07N. Seas are 4-6 ft in S-SW swell. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds are expected in the Papagayo region this weekend. However, winds and seas in this region will be dependent on the exact track of Atlantic Tropical Storm Julia. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail north of the Equator this weekend. Seas in the 5-7 ft range in S-SW will remain prevalent, building to around 8 ft offshore Guatemala this weekend into early next week due to a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak pressure regime continues across the eastern tropical Pacific as the ridge remains well north of the region. The latest satellite-derived wind data shows that a surface trough, remnants of former Tropical Storm Paine, is along 119W and extends from 16N to 21N. Moderate to fresh winds are occuring on the north side of the surface trough. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate to fresh NE winds are present from 13N to 22N and between 130W and 138W, supporting seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are also noted south of the monsoon trough, along with seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail in the remaining waters. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will remain the dominant feature across the northern waters with little change in winds and seas through next week. The remnants of Paine are forecast to gradually dissipate over the next few days. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are then expected across the open waters this weekend into early next week. $$ DELGADO