000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071521 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Oct 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over the Gulf of Tehuantepec is supporting strong to near gale-force northerly winds, along with seas of 8-10 ft. The gradient will tighten even more tonight allowing for winds to increase to gale force. Gale-force winds will prevail through early Tue. Seas occasionally building to 11-13 ft mainly on Sun-Mon. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 10N116W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 12N and between 90W and 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a developing gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A surface ridge extends to the waters off Baja California, supporting light to gentle northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft. The remnants of Paine continue to weaken well southwest of Baja California Sur, sustaining gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft. Light northerly winds and seas of 2-3 ft prevail in the Gulf of California. Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light and variable winds are noted in the remaining offshore waters of Mexico. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. For the forecast, a prolonged gap wind event is expected across the Tehuantepec region through Tue, with minimal gale force winds pulsing tonight through Mon night-early Tue. Elsewhere, the remnant low of Paine will continue to weaken west of the area today, loosening the pressure gradient, and diminishing remnant winds and seas. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the remainder of the area through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds continue in the Papagayo region to about 90W. In the remainder of the offshore waters, gentle to moderate southerly winds are occurring south of 06N. Light to gentle SW winds are present north of 06N. Seas are 4-6 ft in S-SW swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse each night in the Papagayo region through Sat, becoming strong on Fri night. Moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough will increase to moderate to fresh north of the Equator this weekend. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas in the 5-7 ft range in S-SW will prevail, building to around 8 ft offshore Guatemala this weekend into early next week due to a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1026 mb subtropical ridge extends southward into the tropical eastern Pacific, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The remnants of Paine are located near 19N117W and a few showers are noted near the weak system. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 5-7 ft are noted near the remnants of Paine. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds are present from 13N to 20N and between 123W and 138W, supporting seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, a ridge will prevail across the northern waters with little change in winds and seas through next week. The remnants of Paine are forecast to gradually dissipate this weekend. Moderate winds and seas are then expected across the open waters this weekend into early next week. $$ ERA