000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070922 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Oct 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0855 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A locally tight pressure gradient over the Gulf of Tehuantepec is supporting strong to near gale-force northerly winds, along with seas of 8-10 ft. The gradient will tighten slightly tonight allowing for winds to increase to minimal gale force. Winds will pulse to minimal gale force through Mon. Seas occasionally building to 11-13 ft. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 08N93W to a 1011 mb low pres near 12N107W to 11N120W to a 1010 mb low pres near 15N133W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 10N and between 88W and 98W. Similar convection from 06N to 15N and between 112W and 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a developing gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A weak ridge extends to the waters off Baja California, supporting light to locally moderate northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft. The remnants of Paine continue to weaken well southwest of Baja California Sur, sustaining light to gentle winds and seas of 5-6 ft. Light to locally moderate northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail in the Gulf of California. Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light and variable winds are found in the remaining offshore waters of Mexico. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. For the forecast, a prolonged gap wind event is expected across the Tehuantepec region through the Monday, with minimal gale force winds pulsing tonight through Mon. Elsewhere, the remnant low of Paine near 19.0N116W will continue to weaken, loosening the pressure gradient, and diminishing remnant winds and seas. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the remainder of the area through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to occasionally fresh easterly trade winds continue in the Papagayo region to about 88W. In the remainder of the offshore waters, gentle to moderate southerly winds are occurring south of 06N. Light to gentle SW winds are present north of 06N. Seas are 4-6 ft in S-SW swell. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh winds will pulse each night in the Papagayo region through Sat, becoming locally strong Fri night. Moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough will increase to moderate to fresh north of the Equator this weekend. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas in the 5-7 ft range in S-SW will prevail, building to around 8 ft offshore Guatemala this weekend into early next week due to a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1024 mb subtropical ridge extends southward into the tropical eastern Pacific, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The remnants of Paine are located near 19N116W and a few showers are noted near the weak system. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 5-7 ft are noted near the remnants of Paine. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds are present from 13N to 20N and between 123W and 138W, supporting seas of 6-8 ft. A recent altimeter pass captured seas up to 8 ft near 16N131W. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, a ridge will prevail across the northern waters with little change in winds and seas through the end of the week. The remnants of Paine are forecast to gradually dissipate. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are then expected across the open waters this weekend into early next week. $$ DELGADO