000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070351 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Oct 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A locally tight pressure gradient over the Gulf of Tehuantepec is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds, along with seas of 8-9 ft. The gradient will tighten slightly Fri night allowing for winds to increase to minimal gale force. Winds will pulse to minimal gale force through Mon, with seas occasionally building to 10-12 ft. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N84W to 09N91W to 12N104W to 10N114W to 15N128W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 12N and between 85W and 94W. Similar convection is present from 08N to 12N and between 99W and 111W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 15N and between 115W and 122W, and from 13N to 17N and between 126W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a developing gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A weak high pressure regime continues across the offshore waters of Baja California, allowing for light to locally moderate northerly winds and seas of 3-6 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found well SW of the southern tip of Baja California, associated with the remnants of Paine. Similar winds with seas of 2-4 ft are found in the Gulf of California. Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light and variable winds prevail over the remaining offshore waters of Mexico. Seas in these waters are in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, a prolonged gap wind event is expected across the Tehuantepec region through the Monday, with minimal gale force winds pulsing Fri night through Mon. Elsewhere, the remnant low of Paine near 18.0N116W will continue to weaken, loosening the pressure gradient, and diminishing remnant winds and seas. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the remainder of the area through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds continue in the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate monsoonal southerly winds are found south of 06N, and light to gentle SW winds are present north of 06N. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in S-SW swell. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse each night in the Papagayo region through Sat, becoming occasionally strong Fri night. Moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough will increase to moderate to fresh north of the Equator this weekend. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas in the 5-7 ft range in S-SW will prevail, building to around 8 ft offshore Guatemala this weekend into early next week due to a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1022 mb high pressure system located well west of northern California extends southward into the tropical eastern Pacific, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The exception outside of the deep tropics are the remnants of Paine positioned near 18N116W. Satellite imagery depicts a few showers northeast of the center. Moderate to locally fresh and seas of 5-7 ft are noted in association with the remnants of Paine. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds are found from 14N to 21N and between 123W and 128W, supporting seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft are present in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, a ridge will prevail across the northern waters with little change in winds and seas through the end of the week. The remnants of Paine are forecast to gradually dissipate. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are then expected across the open waters this weekend into early next week. $$ DELGADO