000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061456 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Oct 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1420 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A locally tight pressure gradient over the Gulf of Tehuantepec is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds there, along with seas of 8-9 ft. The gradient will tighten slightly tonight allowing for winds to increase to minimal gale force. Winds will pulse to minimal gale force Fri night through Mon night, with seas occasionally building to 10-12 ft. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 13N104W to 11N110W to 14N129W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 80W and 90W, from 09.5N to 17N between 100W and 110W, and from 10N to 17N between 125W and 136W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 96W and 102W, and from 05N to 09N between 112W and 121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a developing gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, the 1007 mb remnants of Paine are near 18.5N115W with scattered moderate convection within 30 nm in the east quadrant and moderate to fresh winds. Seas are 6-8 ft. A high pressure ridge prevails west of Baja California. Light and variable winds prevail elsewhere over the offshore waters off Mexico as well as the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, in S-SW swell east of 109W, and NW swell west of 109W. Seas are 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California north of the entrance. For the forecast, other than the upcoming gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the remnant low of Paine will continue to weaken, loosening the pressure gradient, and diminishing remnant winds and seas. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore winds are in the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate monsoonal winds are south of 06N, and light to gentle winds are north of 06N. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in S-SW swell, except 4-6 ft north of 07N. For the forecast, moderate monsoonal winds south of the monsoon trough will increase to moderate to fresh north of the Equator this weekend. Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will pulse each night in the Papagayo region through Sat, locally strong Fri night. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas in the 5-7 ft range in S-SW will prevail, building to around 8 ft offshore Guatemala this weekend into early next week due to a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The 1007 mb remnants of Paine are near 18.5N115W with scattered moderate convection within 30 nm in the east quadrant and moderate to fresh winds. Seas are 6-8 ft. A surface ridge prevails elsewhere north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of 7-8 ft north of the monsoon trough to near 20N and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft are over the rest of the open waters. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters with little change in winds and seas through the end of the week, while the remnants of Paine gradually dissipates. Winds of moderate or less and moderate seas are then forecast across the open waters this weekend into early next week. $$ Lewitsky