656 
AXPZ20 KNHC 060830
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Oct 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 14N124W to 11N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N 
to 15N between 101W and 105W, from 06N to 12N between 105W and 
120W, and from 10N to 15N between 120W and 138W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge prevails west of Baja California, while 
the remnant low of Paine is centered near 18N115W. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and the remnant low is supporting 
fresh to strong winds, and seas to 8 ft, over the northern 
semicircle of the low. A gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region
is ongoing, with fresh to near-gale force winds and seas to 8 
ft. Light and variable winds prevail elsewhere over the offshore 
waters off Mexico as well as the Gulf of California. Seas are in 
the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or 
less over the Gulf of California north of the entrance. 

For the forecast, the remnant low of Paine will continue to 
weaken, loosening the pressure gradient, and diminishing the 
strong winds. Elsewhere, a prolonged gap wind event is expected 
across the Tehuantepec region through the weekend, possibly 
pulsing to minimal gale force Sat night into early next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh offshore winds are in the Papagayo region.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate monsoonal winds are south of 06N, 
and light to gentle winds are north of 04N. Seas are in the 5-7 
ft range in S-SW swell, except 4-6 ft north of 07N.

For the forecast, moderate monsoonal winds south of the monsoon
trough will increase to moderate to fresh north of the Equator
this weekend. Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will pulse 
each night in the Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds will
prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas in the 5-7 ft
range in S-SW will prevail, building to around 8 ft offshore
Guatemala this weekend into early next week due to a gap wind
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge prevails north of 20N. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough
is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of 7-8 ft 
north of the monsoon trough to near 20N and west of 125W. Gentle
to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, over much of the 
remainder of the discussion waters. 

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern
waters with little change in winds and seas through the end of
the week, while the remnants of Paine gradually dissipates. 
Winds of moderate or less and moderate seas are then forecast 
across the open waters this weekend into early next week.

$$
AL