000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060233
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Oct 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 11N112W to 13N127W to 
11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between
82W and 87W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 04N to 15N between 101W and 108W, from 08N to 10N
between 108W and 117W, and from 10N to 14N between 117W and 138W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge prevails west of Baja California, 
producing gentle NW winds across the offshore waters off the Baja
peninsula. Light to gentle southerly winds are in the Gulf of 
California, except moderate in the northern Gulf. Light and 
variable winds prevail elsewhere between Puerto Angel and the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the open
waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California 
north of the entrance. Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, an ongoing
gap wind event is supporting fresh to locally strong winds and 
seas to 8 ft.

For the forecast, A prolonged gap wind event is expected across 
the Tehuantepec region through the weekend, possibly pulsing to 
minimal gale force Sat night into early next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh offshore winds are in the Papagayo region.
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh monsoonal winds are south 
of 06N, and light to gentle winds are north of 04N. Seas are in 
the 5-7 ft range in S-SW swell, except 4-6 ft north of 07N.

For the forecast, moderate monsoonal winds south of the monsoon
trough will increase to moderate to fresh north of the Equator
this weekend. Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will pulse 
each night in the Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds will
prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas in the 5-7 ft
range in S-SW will prevail, building to around 8 ft offshore
Guatemala this weekend into early next week due to a gap wind
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge prevails north of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds 
prevail over much of the discussion waters, locally fresh from 
11N to 19N between 122W and 134W. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range 
from 10N to 19N and west of 125W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere across the
open waters.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern
waters with little change in winds and seas through the end of
the week, while the remnants of Paine gradually dissipates. 
Winds of moderate or less and moderate seas are then forecast 
across the open waters this weekend into early next week.

$$
AL