000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052042 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Oct 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Paine is centered near 18.3N 114.8W at 05/2100 UTC moving WNW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Seas are peaking around 10 ft in the southern semicircle. The deep convection associated with Paine has dissipated in the last several hours. The remnants of Paine are forecast to dissipate by Fri afternoon with winds 20 kt or less and seas less than 8 ft by then. Please read the final NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml as well as the lastest NHC High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N103W to 10N109W to 13N130W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 77W and 90W, and from 07N to 16N between 100W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 106W and 116W, and from 10N to 16N between 118W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features above for details on Post- Tropical Cyclone Paine. Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge prevails west of Baja California, producing gentle NW winds across the offshore waters off the Baja peninsula. Light to gentle southerly winds are in the Gulf of California, except moderate in the northern Gulf. Light and variable winds prevail elsewhere between Puerto Angel and the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California north of the entrance. Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, an ongoing gap wind event is supporting fresh to locally strong winds and seas to 8 ft. For the forecast, the remnants of Paine are forecast to dissipate by Fri afternoon with winds 20 kt or less and seas less than 8 ft by then. Otherwise, a prolonged gap wind event is expected across the Tehuantepec region through the weekend, possibly pulsing to minimal gale force Sat into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore winds are in the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh monsoonal winds are south of 06N, and light to gentle winds are north of 04N. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in S-SW swell, except 4-6 ft north of 07N. For the forecast, moderate monsoonal winds south of the monsoon trough will increase to moderate to fresh north of the Equator this weekend. Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will pulse each night in the Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas in the 5-7 ft range in S-SW will prevail, building to around 8 ft offshore Guatemala this weekend into early next week due to a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features above for details on Post- Tropical Cyclone Paine. Elsewhere, a surface ridge prevails north of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over much of the discussion waters, locally fresh from 11N to 19N between 122W and 134W. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range from 10N to 19N and west of 125W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere across the open waters. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters with little change in winds and seas through the end of the week, while the remnants of Paine gradually dissipates. Winds of moderate or less and moderate seas are then forecast across the open waters this weekend into early next week. $$ Lewitsky