000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051442 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Oct 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1410 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Paine is centered near 18.4N 114.5W at 05/1500 UTC moving NW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are peaking near 12 ft in the southern semicircle. Much of the deep convection associated to Paine had dissipated, with scattered moderate noted within 60 nm in the south semicircle. Paine is forecast to become a remnant low this evening, and dissipate Fri morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N86W to 12N100W to 09N109W to 13N125W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 77W and 89W, from 07N to 16N between 100W and 105W, from 06N to 10N between 105W and 115W, and from 10N to 15N between 118W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features above for details on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Paine. Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge prevails west of Baja California, producing gentle NW winds across the offshore waters off the Baja peninsula. Light to gentle southerly winds are in the Gulf of California. Light and variable winds prevail elsewhere between Puerto Angel and the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California north of the entrance. Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, an ongoing gap wind event is supporting fresh to locally strong winds and seas to 8 ft. For the forecast, Paine will become a remnant low and move to 18.6N 114.7W this evening, 18.8N 115.0W Thu morning, 18.9N 115.6W Thu evening, and dissipate Fri morning. Otherwise, a prolonged gap wind event is expected across the Tehuantepec region through the weekend, possibly pulsing to minimal gale force Sat night into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore winds are in the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh monsoonal winds are south of 04N, and light to gentle winds are north of 04N. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in S-SW swell, except 4-6 ft north of 06N. For the forecast, moderate monsoonal winds south of the monsoon trough will increase to moderate to fresh north of the Equator this weekend. Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will pulse each night in the Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas in the 5-7 ft range in S-SW will prevail, building to around 8 ft offshore Guatemala this weekend into early next week due to a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features above for details on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Paine. Elsewhere, a surface ridge prevails north of 20N, centered on a 1021 mb high north of the area near 33N131W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over much of the discussion waters, locally fresh from 10N to 19N between 120W and 135W. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range in NW swell over waters north of 20N, and 7-10 ft from 10N to 20N and west of 125W. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough in southerly swell, with 5-6 ft across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters with little change in winds and seas through the end of the week, while Paine gradually dissipates. Winds of moderate or less and moderate seas are then forecast across the open waters this weekend into early next week. $$ Lewitsky