983 AXPZ20 KNHC 050300 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Oct 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0250 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Paine is centered near 18.1N 114.0W at 05/0300 UTC moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 13 ft within 45 nm across the NW semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 20N between 128W and 140W. Paine will start to weaken Wednesday, and become a remnant low Wednesday night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. An afternoon ASCAT pass indicated winds to minimal gale force near 11N130W. This has prompted a gale warning for this area. Seas are peaking near 11 ft over this area. Winds are expected to diminish below gale force overnight. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 11N110W to 13N124W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N east of 85W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 118W and 128W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 128W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features above for details on Tropical Storm Paine, located across the extreme outer offshore waters WSW of Cabo Corrientes. Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge prevails W of Baja California, producing gentle NW winds across the offshore waters off the Baja peninsula. Light to gentle southerly winds are in the Gulf of California. Light and variable winds prevail elsewhere between Puerto Angel and the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California. Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, an ongoing gap wind event is supporting fresh to locally strong winds and seas to 8 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Paine near 18.1N 114.0W 1004 mb at 8 PM PDT moving NW at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Paine will move to 18.5N 114.4W Wed morning, 18.8N 114.7W Wed evening, weaken to a remnant low near 19.0N 115.1W Thu morning, 19.1N 115.9W Thu evening, 19.2N 117.0W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri evening. Otherwise, fresh winds in the Tehuantepec region will pulse to strong again tonight. A prolonged gap wind event is then expected across Tehuantepec Wed night through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh monsoonal winds are south of 04N, and light to gentle winds are north of 04N. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range between the Galapagos and Ecuador, and 5-7 ft in S to SW swell elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh monsoonal winds will prevail south of 05N through much of the week. Gentle winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough will increase slightly by the end of the week. Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will pulse each night in the Papagayo region. SW swell will spread northward between the Galapagos and Ecuador to maintain seas of 6-8 ft through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features above for details on Tropical Storm Paine, and a gale warning over the western waters. Elsewhere, a surface ridge prevails N of 20N, centered on a 1022 mb high near 30N132W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over much of the discussion waters. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range in NW swell over waters N of 22N, 8-11 ft from 08N to 20N and west of 125W. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough in S swell. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters with little change to the wind over the next few days. The remnants of Paine are expected to move westward between 120W and 130W over the weekend, and will help maintain moderate to locally fresh winds along a band between 16N and 22N. $$ AL