000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042154 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Oct 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Paine is centered near 17.8N 113.3W 1004 mb at 2100 UTC moving NW at 5 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 15 ft within 45 nm across the NW semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm N and 120 nm S semicircles. Paine may intensify slightly overnight before starting a gradual weakening trend, becoming a post-tropical remnant low Wed night. A northwest motion is expected for the next 24 hours or so, followed by a more westward track. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 08.5N79W to 12.5N93W to 10N108W, then resumes from 13.5N115W to 12.5N133W to beyond 11N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection noted from 02.5N to 08N E of 83.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10.5N to 15.5N between 98W and 105W and from 10N to 14N between 111W and 120W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 14.5N between 122W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features above for details on Tropical Storm Paine, located across the extreme outer offshore waters WSW of Cabo Corrientes. Elsewhere, a broad and weak high pressure ridge prevails W of Baja California, producing gentle NW winds across the offshore waters off the Baja peninsula. Light to gentle southerly winds are in the Gulf of California. Light and variable winds prevail elsewhere between Puerto Angel and the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California. Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, an ongoing gap wind event is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Paine will move slowly NW across the far outer offshore waters W of the Revillagigedo Islands tonight, and could strenghten slightly. Paine is expected to reach near 18.3N 113.7W tonight, near 18.7N 114.2W early Wed afternoon, then weaken to a post-tropical remnant low near 19.0N 114.6W Wed night, and continue WNW to near 19.2N 116.1W Thu night before dissipating. Otherwise, fresh winds in the Tehuantepec region will pulse to strong again tonight then weaken Wed. A prolonged gap wind event is then expected across Tehuantepec Thu through the weekend. Weak high pressure will prevail west of the Baja offshore waters and maintain light to moderate winds into the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh monsoonal winds are south of 04N, and light to gentle winds are north of 05N. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range between the Galapagos and Ecuador, and 5-7 ft in S to SW swell elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh monsoonal winds will prevail south of 05N through much of the week. Gentle winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough will increase slightly by the end of the week. Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will pulse each night in the Papagayo region. SW swell will spread northward between the Galapagos and Ecuador to maintain seas of 6-8 ft through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features above for details on Tropical Storm Paine. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge prevails N of 12N, centered on a 1022 mb high near 30N130W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over much of the discussion waters, except for fresh winds from 12N to 19N between 124W and 133W. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range in NW swell over the far NW waters, 8-10 ft in the area of fresh winds, and 5-7 ft elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough in S swell. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters with little change to the wind over the next few days. The remnants of Paine are expected to move westward between 120W and 130W over the weekend, and will help maintain moderate to locally fresh winds along a band between 16N and 22N. $$ Stripling