260 AXPZ20 KNHC 041632 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Oct 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Paine is centered near 17.5N 113.0W 1006 mb at 1500 UTC moving NW at 6 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 15 ft within 45 nm across the W semicircle. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm NE and 120 nm SW semicircles. Paine is forecast to intensify modestly the next 12 hours before starting a weakening trend, becoming a tropical depression Wednesday afternoon, and a remnant low Thursday afternoon. A northwest motion is expected for the next day or so, followed by a westward track. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 09N79W to 12.5N92W to 09.5N107W, then resumes from 13.5N114W to 13N131W to beyond 11.5N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection noted from 02.5N to 08N E of 81.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 88W and 119W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 123W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features above for details on Tropical Storm Paine, located across the extreme outer offshore waters WSW of Cabo Corrientes. Elsewhere, a broad and weak high pressure ridge prevails W of Baja California, producing gentle to moderate NW winds across the offshore waters off the Baja peninsula. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California as well as the remainder open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California. Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, an ongoing gap wind event is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas to 9 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Paine will move slowly NW across the far outer offshore waters W of Cabo Corrientes and strenghten slightly today, reaching near 18.1N 113.5W late this afternoon, near 18.6N 114W Wed morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 18.9N 114.4W late Wed afternoon, then continue WNW to W and gradually weaken to a remnant low through Thu afternoon. Paine will dissipate by early Sat. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds in the Tehuantepec region will continue through today before diminishing slightly through Wed. Winds will once again increase to fresh to strong Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh winds are south of 04N, and light to gentle winds are north of 04N. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range between the Galapagos and Ecuador, and 5-7 ft in S to SW swell elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh monsoonal winds will prevail south of 04N through much of the week. Gentle winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough will increase slightly by the end of the week. Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will pulse each night in the Papagayo region. SW swell, with seas in the 6-8 ft range, between the Galapagos and Ecuador will spread northward through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features above for details on Tropical Storm Paine. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge prevails N of 12N, centered on a 1022 mb high near 30N130W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over much of the discussion waters, except for fresh winds from 12N to 18N between 124W and 132W. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range in NW swell over the far NW waters, 7-9 ft in the area of fresh winds, and 4-7 ft elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough in S swell. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters with little change to the wind speeds the next few days. $$ Stripling