848 AXPZ20 KNHC 040849 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Oct 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Paine is centered near 16.9N 112.6W at 04/0900 UTC moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 12 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm W semicircle of the center. Paine is forecast to intensify modestly the next 12 hours before starting a weakening trend, becoming a tropical depression Wednesday, and a remnant low early Thursday. A north-northwest motion is expected for the next day or so, followed by a westward track. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 11N103W. It resumes from 13N115W to 12N121W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 120W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features above for details on Tropical Storm Paine. Elsewhere, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, an ongoing gap wind event is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail over the offshore waters off the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California as well as the remainder open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Paine near 16.9N 112.6W 1006 mb at 2 AM PDT moving NW at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Paine will move to 17.5N 113.1W this afternoon, 18.3N 113.7W Wed morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 18.7N 114.1W Wed afternoon, become a remnant low and move to 19.0N 114.6W Thu morning, 19.1N 115.2W Thu afternoon, and 19.2N 115.8W Fri morning. Paine will dissipate early Sat. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds in the Tehuantepec region will continue through today before diminishing slightly through Wed. Winds will once again increase to fresh to strong Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh winds are south of 03N, and light to gentle winds are north of 03N. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range between the Galapagos and Ecuador, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail south of 03N through much of the week. Gentle winds elsewhere S of the monsoon trough will increase slightly by the end of the week. Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will pulse each night in the Papagayo region. SW swell, with seas in the 6-8 ft range, between the Galapagos and Ecuador will spread northward through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features above for details on Tropical Storm Paine. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails N of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over much of the discussion waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in NW swell over the far NW waters, and 4-7 ft elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters with little change to the wind speeds the next few days. $$ AL