000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032157 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Oct 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Orlene is centered near 23.6N 105.4W at 03/2100 UTC moving NNE at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, southern portions of the Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. On the forecast track, the center of Orlene will move farther inland over west-central Mexico this evening. Additional weakening is forecast, and Orlene is forecast to dissipate later tonight. Tropical Storm Paine is centered near 15.9N 112.0W at 03/2100 UTC moving NNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are 11 ft in the SW quadrant. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is within 210 nm W semicircle of the center. A northwest or north-northwest motion is expected through Tuesday night, followed by a gradual turn to the west- northwest and west on Wednesday and Thursday. Some slight strengthening is possible through Tuesday. Weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday night or Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to a 1008 mb low near 10N98W to 12N106W then resumes from 13N114W to 12N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is in the Colombia and Panama offshore waters, from 09N to 14N between 92W and 100W, and from 07N to 15N between 120W and 140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated with the low in special features from 11N to 16N between 111W and 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features above for details on Hurricane Orlene. Elsewhere, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, an ongoing gap wind event is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail over the offshore waters off the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California as well as the remainder open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, winds will diminish in the entrance of the Gulf of California and along the Baja offshore waters by Tue morning as conditions generated by Orlene improve. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds in the Tehuantepec region will continue through Tue before diminishing slightly through Thu. Winds will once again increase to fresh to strong Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle NE to E winds are north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range between the Galapagos and Ecuador, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, gentle winds S of the monsoon trough will increase slightly through midweek. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse each night in the Papagayo region starting tonight. SW swell bringing seas in the 6-8 ft range between the Galapagos and Ecuador will spread northward through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see above for an area of disturbed weather several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula with a high chance for tropical cyclone development. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails N of 20N, anchored by 1020 mb high pressure centered near 29N129W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range in NW swell over the far NW waters, and in the 4-7 ft range elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas of 6-9 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters with little change to the wind speeds. A set of NW swell supporting seas of 8 ft or greater over the far NW waters will continue today before starting to subside. $$ Ramos