000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031558 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Oct 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Orlene is centered near 22.9N 105.7W at 03/1500 UTC moving NNE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are near 22 ft. Scattered moderate convection is from 19N to 24N E of 107W. A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal flooding along the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in regions of onshore winds through early this afternoon. Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, southern portions of the Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. On the forecast track, the center of Orlene will move farther inland over southwestern Mexico today and tonight. Rapid weakening is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours as Orlene moves inland. Orlene is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by this afternoon, and dissipate tonight or early Tuesday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula have become more concentrated overnight. However, the thunderstorms are currently displaced to the southwest of the low-level center. Only a slight increase in organization would result in the formation of a tropical depression later today or tonight while the system moves slowly northward-northwestward or northward. There is a high probability for tropical cyclone development in the next couple of days. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to a 1008 mb low near 10N98W to 12N106W then resumes from 13N114W to 12N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is in the Colombia and Panama offshore waters, from 09N to 14N between 92W and 100W, and from 07N to 15N between 120W and 140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated with the low in special features from 11N to 16N between 111W and 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features above for details on Hurricane Orlene. Elsewhere, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, an ongoing gap wind event is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail over the offshore waters off the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California as well as the remainder open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, winds will diminish in the entrance of the Gulf of California and along the Baja offshore waters by Tue morning as conditions generated by Orlene improve. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds in the Tehuantepec region will continue through Tue before diminishing slightly through Thu. Winds will once again increase to fresh to strong Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle NE to E winds are north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range between the Galapagos and Ecuador, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, gentle winds S of the monsoon trough will increase slightly through midweek. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse each night in the Papagayo region starting tonight. SW swell bringing seas in the 6-8 ft range between the Galapagos and Ecuador will spread northward through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see above for an area of disturbed weather several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula with a high chance for tropical cyclone development. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails N of 20N, anchored by 1020 mb high pressure centered near 29N129W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range in NW swell over the far NW waters, and in the 4-7 ft range elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas of 6-9 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters with little change to the wind speeds. A set of NW swell supporting seas of 8 ft or greater over the far NW waters will continue today before starting to subside. $$ Ramos