000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030702 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Oct 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0850 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Orlene is centered near 21.4N 106.5W at 03/0300 UTC moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are near 24 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center of Orlene. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 19N to 24N between 104W and 108W. A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal flooding in the Islas Marias and along the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in regions of onshore winds. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of southwest Mexico through Tuesday. Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the next day or so. These swells will cause large breaking waves producing life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Satellite imagery also indicates that the surface circulation has become better defined. If these trends continue, a tropical depression is likely to form Monday or Monday night while the system moves slowly northward during the next couple of days. There is a high probability for tropical cyclone development in the next couple of days. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N97W to 15N112W to 12N122W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 90W and 100W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 111W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 17N between 120W and 126W, and from 08N to 10N between 128W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features above for details on Hurricane Orlene. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, an ongoing gap wind event is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail over the offshore waters off the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California as well as the remainder open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, winds will diminish in the entrance of the Gulf of California and along the Baja offshore waters by Tue morning as conditions associated with Orlene subside. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds in the Tehuantepec region will continue through Tue before diminishing slightly through Thu. Winds will once again increase to fresh to strong Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle NE to E winds are north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range between the Galapagos and Ecuador, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, gentle winds S of the monsoon trough will increase slightly through midweek. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse each night in the Papagayo region starting tonight. SW swell bringing seas in the 6-8 ft range between the Galapagos and Ecuador will spread northward through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see above for an area of disturbed weather several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula with a high chance for tropical cyclone development. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails N of 20N, anchored by 1020 mb high pressure centered near 29N131W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range in NW swell over the far NW waters, and in the 4-6 ft range elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas of 6-9 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters with little change to the wind speeds. A set of NW swell supporting seas of 8 ft or greater over the far NW waters will continue today before starting to subside. $$ AL