000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030259 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Oct 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0250 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Orlene is centered near 21.4N 106.5W at 03/0300 UTC moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are near 24 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center of Orlene. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 16N to 24N between 103W and 109W. A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal flooding in the Islas Marias and along the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in regions of onshore winds. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of southwest Mexico through Tuesday. Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the next day or so. These swells will cause large breaking waves producing life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two as the system moves slowly northward. There is a high probability for tropical cyclone development in the next couple of days. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 11N98W to 15N111W to 11N130W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 15N east of 98W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 17N between 110W and 117W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 17N between 120W and 126W, and from 08N to 10N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features above for details on Hurricane Orlene. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, an ongoing gap wind event is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail over the offshores of Baja California Norte while a tighter pressure gradient due to the proximity of Hurricane Orlene is supporting moderate to fresh NW over the offshore waters of Baja California Sur. Seas are 5-7 ft in mixed SE and NW swell along the Baja peninsula offshores. A recent scatterometer pass show light to gentle variable winds in the Gulf of California where seas remain in the 1-3 ft range. Light to gentle variable winds are in the remainder SW Mexico open waters. For the forecast, winds will diminish in the entrance of the Gulf of California and along the Baja offshore waters by Tue morning as conditions associated with Orlene subside. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds in the Tehuantepec region will continue through Tue before diminishing slightly through Thu. Winds will once again increase to fresh to strong Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough while mainly gentle NE to E winds are north of the monsoon trough. Seas remain in the 4-6 ft range in southerly swell. For the forecast, gentle winds S of the monsoon trough will increase slightly through midweek. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse each night in the Papagayo region starting Monday night. Seas in the 4-6 ft range will increase to 6-8 ft over the southern waters early this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see above for an area of disturbed weather several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula with a high chance for tropical cyclone development. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails N of 20N, anchored by 1020 mb high pressure centered near 29N130W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range in NW swell over the far NW waters. supporting light to gentle variable winds N of 24N between 120W and 135W. Scatterometer data show gentle to moderate NE to E winds N of the monsoon trough to 24N W of 112W. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range north of the monsoon trough and 6-8 ft south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters with little change to the wind speeds. A set of NW swell will support seas of 8 ft or greater over the far NW waters through Monday before subsiding. $$ AL