000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022133 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Oct 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Orlene is centered near 20.4N 106.9W at 02/2100 UTC moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are near 22 ft. Numerous strong convection is noted from 18N to 24N between 104W and 109W. On the forecast track, the center of Orlene will pass near or over Las Islas Marias tonight, and reach the coast of mainland Mexico within the warning area on Monday. Orlene is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is expected during the next day or so, however Orlene is forecast to be a strong hurricane when it passes near or over the Islas Marias, and remain a hurricane when it reaches southwestern Mexico. A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal flooding in the Islas Marias and along the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in regions of onshore winds. Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure centered near 15N112W or several hundred miles SSW of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to show signs of organization. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 17N between 107W and 116W. Peak seas are 8-9 ft in the SE quadrant of the low center. Additional development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days as it moves slowly northeastward or northward. Conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development late this week. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N84W to 11N92W to 08N97W to 10N102W then resumes from a 1008 mb low near 15N112W to 12N130W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 90W and 101W, and from 08N to 16N between 106W and 126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features above for details on Hurricane Orlene. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, an ongoing gap wind event is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds are over the Gulf of California as well as the remainder of the open waters off SW Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, outside of Hurricane Orlene, fresh to strong winds in the Tehuantepec region will continue through Tue then diminish to moderate to fresh speeds Tue night into Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough while gentle NE to E winds are north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in southerly swell. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will diminish slightly Sun evening, then increase once again through the middle of next week. Seas in the 4-6 ft range will increase to 6-8 ft over the southern waters early this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see above for an area of disturbed weather several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula with a medium chance for tropical cyclone development. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails N of 20N and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of the monsoon trough with moderate to locally fresh winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range north of the monsoon trough and 6-8 ft south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters with little change to the wind speeds. A set of NW swell will impact the far NW waters, bringing seas of 8 ft or greater through early next week before subsiding. $$ Ramos