000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020858 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Oct 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0850 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Orlene is centered near 19.0N 106.8W at 02/0900 UTC moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Peak seas are near 22 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 15N to 22N between 104W and 110W. Orlene is forecast to track north- northeast before making landfall Monday night. Orlene will bring large breaking waves and hazardous surf to the waters off Jalisco to the waters off the southern parts of Sinaloa through early Tuesday. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of southwestern Mexico into Tuesday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula gradually continues to become better organized. Additional development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days as it moves slowly northeastward or northward. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 11N100W. It then resumes from 15N110W to 12N117W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N east of 93W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 110W and 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features above for details on Hurricane Orlene. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, an ongoing gap wind event is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds are over the Gulf of California as well as the remainder of the open waters off SW Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, outside of Hurricane Orlene, fresh to strong winds in the Tehuantepec region will continue through Tue then diminish to moderate to fresh speeds Tue night into Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough while gentle NE to E winds are north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in southerly swell. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will diminish slightly Sun evening, then increase once again through the middle of next week. Seas in the 4-6 ft range will increase to 6-8 ft over the southern waters early this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see above for an area of disturbed weather several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula with the chance for tropical cyclone development. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails N of 20N and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of the monsoon trough with moderate to locally fresh winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range north of the monsoon trough and 6-8 ft south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters with little change to the wind speeds. A set of NW swell will impact the far NW waters, bringing seas of 8 ft or greater through early next week before subsiding. $$ AL