000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Oct 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Orlene is centered near 17.9N 107.1W at 01/2100 UTC moving N at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas to 20 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is from 15N to 21N between 103W and 109W. Scattered moderate elsewhere from 11N to 22N between 103W and 111W. On the forecast track, the center of Orlene should pass near or over Las Islas Marias Sunday night or Monday morning and reach the coast of mainland Mexico later on Monday or Monday night. Additional strengthening is forecast through Sunday afternoon. Steady to rapid weakening is expected starting Sunday night and continuing until landfall. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N95W to 10N100W then resumes from 15N113W to 13N127W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N east of 99W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 09N to 17N between 110W and 118W and from 08N to 16N W of 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features above for details on Hurricane Orlene. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, an ongoing gap wind event is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds are over the Gulf of California as well as the remainder of the open waters off SW Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, other than Hurricane Orlene, fresh to strong winds in the Tehuantepec region will continue through Tue then diminish to moderate to fresh speeds Tue night into Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough while gentle to locally moderate NE to E winds are north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in southerly swell. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds N and S of the monsoon trough will diminish to light to gentle Sun evening and increase to gentle to moderate speeds Mon night into Tue with locally fresh winds likely S of the monsoon trough Tue through Wed. Seas during the forecast period will remain in the 5 to 6 ft range. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging prevails N of 20N and W of 120W. Rencent scatterometer data show light to gentle winds N of 21N and W of 122W, and gentle to moderate E to NE winds between the monsoon trough and 21N. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range in mixed SW and NW swell over much of the discussion waters. Otherwise, there is a 1009 mb low near 14N113W generating a broad area of scattered showers. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters with little change to the expected conditions over the next couple of days. Otherwise, additional slow development of the aforementioned low is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next several days as it moves slowly northeastward or northward. $$ Ramos