000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011559 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Oct 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Orlene is centered near 17.6N 107.0W at 01/1500 UTC moving N at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas to 20 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is from 15N to 21N between 103W and 110W. On the forecast track, the center of Orlene should pass near or over Las Islas Marias Sunday night or Monday morning and reach the coast of mainland Mexico later on Monday or Monday night. Strengthening is expected through Sunday. After that, steady weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 14N100W. It then resumes from 15N112W to 12N120W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 13N east of 90W, and from 12N to 17N between 110W and 116W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features above for details on Tropical Storm Orlene. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, an ongoing gap wind event is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas to 9 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds are over the Gulf of California as well as the remainder of the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, other than Tropical Storm Orlene, fresh to strong winds in the Tehuantepec region will continue through early next week before diminishing through the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds south of the monsoon trough will diminish through early next week. Winds will then once again increase slightly through the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging prevails N of 20N. Light to gentle winds are noted N of 25N and west of 135W. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over much of the discussion waters. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters with little change to the expected conditions over the next couple of days. $$ Ramos