000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010308 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Oct 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0250 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Orlene is centered near 17.0N 107.2W at 01/0300 UTC moving N at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 13N to 19N between 104W and 110W. Orlene should turn northward and north- northeastward during the next day or so, with this general motion continuing through landfall on Monday. Orlene is forecast to reach hurricane intensity by Saturday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 11N93W to 15N101W. It then resumes from 15N111W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N east of 94W, from 13N to 17N between 111W and 117W, and from 08N to 11N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features above for details on Tropical Storm Orlene. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, an ongoing gap wind event is supporting near gale force winds and seas to 10 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds are over the Gulf of California as well as the remainder of the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, other than Tropical Storm Orlene, strong to near gale force winds in the Tehuantepec region will diminish to fresh to strong on Sat. These winds will continue through early next week before diminishing through the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds south of the monsoon trough will diminish Sat through early next week.Winds will then once again increase slightly through the middle of next week. Otherwise, elevated seas offshore Guatemala will subside tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging prevails N of 20N. Light to gentle winds are noted N of 25N and west of 132W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over much of the discussion waters. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters with little change to the expected conditions over the next couple of days. $$ AL