000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010049 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Oct 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Orlene is centered near 16.6N 107.1W at 30/2100 UTC moving NNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 13N to 19N between 104W and 110W. A turn toward the north is expected by tonight along with a slight increase in forward speed. Orlene is then forecast to move toward the north or north-northeast on Saturday and Saturday night. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected through Saturday night, and Orlene is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 11N93W to 15N101W. It then resumes from 15N111W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N east of 94W, from 13N to 17N between 111W and 117W, and from 08N to 11N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features above for details on Tropical Storm Orlene. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, an ongoing gap wind event is supporting near gale force winds and seas to 10 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds are over the Gulf of California as well as the remainder of the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, other than Tropical Storm Orlene, winds in the region of Tehuantepec will diminish to fresh to strong on Sat and will continue through Tue. Wind in that region will further diminish to moderate to fresh speeds Tue night and continue through mid-week. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds will dominate through Mon and diminish to light to gentle Mon night into Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, winds south of the monsoon trough will increase to moderate to fresh speeds later today and diminish back to moderate speeds on Sat. These winds will further diminish to light to gentle on Monday, continuing through Tue. Otherwise, seas offshore Guatemala due to an ongoing gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region will subside tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging prevails N of 20N. Light to gentle winds are noted N of 25N and west of 132W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over much of the discussion waters. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters with little change to the expected conditions over the next couple of days. $$ AL