000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301556 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Sep 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Orlene is centered near 16.1N 107.1W at 30/1500 UTC moving NW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 13N to 18N between 105W and 110W. A turn toward the north is expected by tonight along with a slight increase in forward speed. Orlene is then forecast to turn toward the north-northeast by Saturday or Saturday night. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Orlene is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure across eastern Mexico and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting gale force winds over the Tehuantepec region. Winds will diminish below gale force this morning as the area of high pressure weakens, which will loosen the pressure gradient. Seas to 14 ft will gradually subside to 8 ft by this evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N95W then resumes from 14N112W to 13N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 82W and 102W, across the Colombia and Panama offshore waters, from 11N to 17N between 112W and 119W, and from 08N to 16N W of 126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features above for details on Tropical Storm Orlene, and on a Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail over the open waters off Mexico, with light to gentle winds over the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, other than Tropical Storm Orlene and the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning, mainly gentle to moderate winds will dominate through Mon and diminish to light to gentle Mon night into Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, winds south of the monsoon trough will increase to moderate to fresh speeds later today and diminish back to moderate speeds on Sat. These winds will further diminish to light to gentle on Monday, continuing through Tue. Otherwise, seas offshore Guatemala due to an ongoing gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region will subside tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails north of 20N. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is supporting moderate NE to E winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over much of the discussion waters. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters with little change to the expected conditions over the next couple of days. $$ Ramos