000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300057 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Sep 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Orlene is centered near 15.4N 106.5W at 29/2100 UTC moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently to 12 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 104W and 110W. A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north on Friday. Orlene is forecast to turn toward the north-northeast by Saturday. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Orlene is forecast to become a hurricane Friday night or Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A locally tight pressure gradient over the Tehuantepec region will support gale force winds this evening into Fri morning, with fresh to near gale force winds pulsing thereafter through the upcoming weekend. Seas will build to 8-12 ft at times with these winds. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 12N91W to 15N99W. It resumes from 14N110W to 13N127W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N east of 85W, and from 10N to 14N between 93W and 100W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 112W and 117W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 135W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features above for details on Tropical Storm Orlene, and on a Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail over the open waters off Mexico, with light to gentle winds over the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, other than Tropical Storm Orlene and the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning, mainly gentle to moderate winds will dominate through Mon and diminsh to light to gentle Mon night into Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, winds south of the monsoon trough will increase to moderate to fresh speeds on Fri and diminish back to moderate speeds on Sat. These winds will further diminish to light to gentle on Monday, continuing through Tue. Otherwise, seas will build offshore Guatemala by the end of the week due to an ongoing gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening cold front is just north of 28N and west of 125W. A belt of moderate to fresh winds are north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to 27N and west of about 124W. Mainly moderate southerly flow is south of the monsoon trough, locally fresh between 108W and 112W where seas are to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the northern waters through tonight, while the front gradually dissipates. Gentle to moderate winds will dominate the waters by the end of the week as Tropical Storm Orlene weakens the high. Winds will occasionally pulse to fresh south of the monsoon trough through the weekend. $$ AL