000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292147 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Sep 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Orlene is centered near 15.4N 106.5W at 29/2100 UTC moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently to 12 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 104W and 110W. A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north on Friday. Orlene is forecast to turn toward the north-northeast by Saturday. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Orlene is forecast to become a hurricane Friday night or Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A locally tight pressure gradient over the Tehuantepec region will support gale force winds this evening into Fri morning, with fresh to near gale force winds pulsing thereafter through the upcoming weekend. Seas will build to 8-12 ft at times with these winds. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 10N85W to 12N97W then resumes near 13N109W to 13N128W to 09N136W. The ITCZ axis extends from 09N136W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is across the Costa Rica, and Colombia offshore waters, from 08N to 14N between 90W and 105W, and from 09N to 15N between 112W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features above for details on Tropical Storm Orlene, and on a Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds dominate the remainder region with seas in the 5 to 6 ft range in mixed SW and NW swell along the Baja California peninunsula offshore waters and SW swell along the SW Mexican offshores. Along the Gulf of California seas are up to 3 ft. For the forecast, other than Tropical Storm Orlene and the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning, mainly gentle to moderate winds will dominate through Mon and diminsh to light to gentle Mon night into Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds dominate the offshore waters, southerly south of the monsoon trough along roughly 09N/10N, and W-NW north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5-6 ft in southerly swell across the region, except 3-6 ft offshore Colombia and eastern Panama. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and just off the coast from Colombia northward to Guatemala. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will prevail offshore southern Colombia and Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere, becoming NE-E from the Papagayo region northward this weekend. Winds will weaken to light to gentle early next week. Seas of 4-7 ft will dominate the waters today before subsiding slightly Fri. Seas will build offshore Guatemala by the end of the week due to an extended gap wind event currently developing across the Tehuantepec region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features above for details on Tropical Storm Orlene. The 1009 mb remnant low of Newton is located near 14N127W. Winds are currently moderate to fresh and seas around 7 ft near the low. Only a small puff of disorganized deep convection is in the NW quadrant from the center. Environmental conditions are becoming less favorable for development. The system is expected to move slowly westward over the far western portion of the eastern North Pacific over the next couple of days. A stationary front is just north of 28N and west of 127W. A belt of moderate to fresh winds are north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to 27N and west of about 124W, mainly due to the pressure gradient between a weak ridge across the region and the remnant low of Newton. Mainly moderate southerly flow is south of the monsoon trough, locally fresh between 108W and 112W where seas are to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, other than the remnants of Newton and Tropical Storm Orlene, weak high pressure will dominate the northern waters through tonight, while the front may manage to sneak just south of 30N while dissipating. Gentle to moderate winds will dominate the waters by the end of the week as Tropical Storm Orlene weakens the high. Winds will occasionally pulse to fresh south of the monsoon trough through the weekend. $$ Ramos