000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290834 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Sep 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Orlene is centered near 14.8N 104.9W at 29/0900 UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently 11 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 75 nm in the east semicircle and within 90 nm in the west semicircle. A turn to the north is forecast to occur on Fri, and this motion should continue over the weekend. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Orlene is expected to become a hurricane by late Fri. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A locally tight pressure gradient over the Tehuantepec region will support pulsing gale force winds through this morning, then again tonight into early Fri, with fresh to near gale force winds pulsing thereafter through the upcoming weekend. Seas will build to 8-12 ft at times with these winds. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to near recently upgraded Tropical Storm Orlene at 14.8N104.9W to 12N115W to 1008 mb low pressure near 13N127W to 08N138W. The ITCZ axis extends from 08N138W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 110W and 118W. Similar convection is 60 nm within the coast from Colombia northward to Guatemala. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 91W and 96W, and from 06N to 10N between 118W and 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features above for details on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Orlene, and on a Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW winds are offshore Baja California Norte, with light to gentle variable winds offshore Baja California Sur. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft in S-SW swell in the open waters away from Tropical Storm Orlene, except NW swell offshore Baja California Norte. Light to gentle SE winds are noted in the Gulf of California, with seas of 1-3 ft north of the entrance. For the forecast, other than Tropical Depression Sixteen-E and the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds dominate the offshore waters, southerly south of the monsoon trough along roughly 09N/10N, and W-NW north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5-6 ft in southerly swell across the region, except 3-6 ft offshore Colombia and eastern Panama. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and just off the coast from Colombia northward to Guatemala. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will prevail offshore southern Colombia and Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere, becoming NE-E from the Papagayo region northward this weekend. Winds will weaken to light to gentle early next week. Seas of 4-7 ft will dominate the waters today before subsiding slightly Fri. Seas will build offshore Guatemala by the end of the week due to an extended gap wind event currently developing across the Tehuantepec region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features above for details on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Orlene. The 1008 mb remnant low of Newton is located near 13.5N126.5W. Winds are currently moderate to fresh and seas around 6 ft near the low. Only a small puff of disorganized deep convection is near the center. Environmental conditions are becoming less favorable for additional development. The system is expected to move slowly westward over the far western portion of the eastern North Pacific over the next couple of days, with a low chance of tropical cyclone formation. A cold front is stalling along and just north of 30N and west of 130W. Weak high pressure is located over the NW waters south of the front. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are north of 28N and west of 130W under the high, with 4-6 ft seas in mixed swell north of 24N and west of 126W. A belt of moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of about 122W, mainly due to the pressure gradient between the high and the remnant low of Newton. Mainly moderate southerly flow is south of the monsoon trough, locally fresh between 108W and 112W where seas are to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, other than the remnants of Newton and Tropical Storm Orlene, weak high pressure will dominate the northern waters through tonight, while the front may manage to sneak just south of 30N while dissipating. Gentle to moderate winds will dominate the waters by the end of the week as Tropical Storm Orlene weakens the high. Winds will occasionally pulse to fresh south of the monsoon trough through the weekend. $$ Lewitsky