000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290245 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Sep 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Sixteen-E is centered near 14.4N 103.7W at 29/0300 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are currently 8-10 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 101W and 107W. A continued west-northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. The system is forecast to slow down and turn toward the north or north-northeast over the weekend. Strengthening is expected, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tomorrow and could reach hurricane strength by the end of the week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to Tropical Depression Sixteen-E near 14N103W to 12N111W to 1008 mb low pressure near 13.5N124W to 08N136W. The ITCZ axis extends from 08N136W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 14N within 75 nm of the coast, from 06N to 09N between 90W and 93W, and from 07N to 13N between 106W and 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features above for details on Tropical Depression Sixteen-E. Fresh to strong northerly winds prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region with seas of 7-9 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds are offshore Baja California Norte, with light to gentle variable winds offshore Baja California Sur. Seas are mainly 5-7 ft in S-SW swell in the open waters away from Tropical Depression Sixteen-E, except NW swell offshore Baja California Norte. Light to gentle SE winds are noted in the Gulf of California, except moderate in the northern Gulf. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California north of the entrance. For the forecast, other than Tropical Depression Sixteen-E, fresh to strong northerly winds will continue to pulse in the Tehuantepec region, occasionally near gale-force, through the upcoming weekend. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds dominate the offshore waters, southerly south of the monsoon trough along roughly 09N/10N, and W-NW north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5-6 ft in southerly swell across the region, except 3-5 ft offshore Colombia and eastern Panama. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and just off the coast from Colombia northward to Guatemala. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will prevail offshore southern Colombia and Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere, becoming NE-E from the Papagayo region northward this weekend. Winds will weaken to light to gentle early next week. Seas of 5-7 ft will dominate the waters through Thu before subsiding slightly Fri. Seas will build offshore Guatemala by the end of the week due to an extended gap wind event currently developing across the Tehuantepec region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features above for details on Tropical Depression Sixteen-E. The 1008 mb remnant low of Newton is located near 13.5N124W. Winds are currently moderate to fresh and seas around 6 ft near the low. Only a small puff of deep convection is near the center, and satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low has weakened today. Some slight development is still possible tonight or tomorrow while the system moves slowly westward over the far western portion of the eastern North Pacific, with a low chance of tropical cyclone formation. A cold front is stalling along and just north of 30N and west of 130W. High pressure of 1021 mb is located over the NW waters south of the front near 29N138W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are north of 28N and west of 130W under the high, with 4-5 ft seas in mixed swell north of 24N and west of 128W. A belt of moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of about 120W, due to the pressure gradient between the high and the remnant low of Newton. Fresh to strong southerly winds are noted from 09N to 12N between 108W and 112W, along with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ west of 105W. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, other than the remnants of Newton and Tropical Depression Sixteen-E, weak high pressure will dominate the northern waters through Thu night, while the front manages to sneak just south of 30N while dissipating. Gentle to moderate winds will dominate the waters by the end of the week as Tropical Depression Sixteen-E weakens the high. Winds will occasionally pulse to fresh south of the monsoon trough through the weekend. $$ Lewitsky