000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280756 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Sep 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... South of the Southern Coast of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an 1008 mb area of low pressure located south of the southern coast of Mexico near 13.5N101W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 16N between 99W and 105W. Winds are currently 20-25 kt with seas of 8-10 ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward off the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours, and a high chance through the next 5 days. Western East Pacific: The 1007 mb remnants of Newton are located nearly 1,000 nautical miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula near 14N123W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm in the southwest quadrant. Winds are currently 20 kt with seas to 7 ft. Although shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased over the past several hours, some additional slight development of the system is possible, and it could briefly become a tropical depression again while it moves generally westward over the western portion of the eastern North Pacific. Environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for additional development by the end of the week. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both systems. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 12N86W to 1008 mb low pressure near 13.5N101W to 1007 mb low pressure near 14N123W to 07N135W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N135W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 90W and 95W, and from 08N to 12N between 109W and 114W. Similar convection is within 75 nm offshore Colombia. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features above for details on an area of low pressure near 13.5N101W. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec per overnight ASCAT scatterometer data, with seas of 7-8 ft. Moderate winds are offshore Baja California Norte, with gentle to moderate winds offshore Baja California Sur. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere, along with seas of 5-7 ft, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California north of the entrance. For the forecast, other than the area of low pressure, fresh N to NE winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will to pulse to strong at night through the week and into the weekend. Winds may reach near gale force there Thu and Fri nights. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds will continue to dominate the Baja California Norte offshore waters through mid-week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough extends to along or just offshore the coasts of Guatemala east-southeast to near the Papagayo region and across the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Moderate S-SW winds dominate the offshore waters, except light and variable near and just north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 6-7 ft in S-SW swell, except 4-6 ft offshore Colombia to the Gulf of Panama. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms extend offshore from Colombia northward. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will prevail offshore southern Colombia and Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere, becoming NE-E from the Papagayo region northward this weekend. Seas of 6-8 ft will dominate the waters through Thu before subsiding slightly Fri. Seas will build offshore Guatemala by the end of the week due to an extended gap wind event currently developing across the Tehuantepec region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features above for details on the remnants of Newton near 14N123W, and on an area of low pressure near 13.5N101W. A stalling cold front is noted northwest of 30N140W. High pressure of 1019 mb is southeast of the front, located near 28N135W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and 4-6 ft seas in mixed swell are under the high north of 26N and west of 129W. A surface trough is analyzed from 16N140W to 13N132W. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds are northeast of the trough and the remnants of Newton, to near 120W. Seas there are 6-7 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 7-9 ft are south of the monsoon trough to 01N between 95W and 120W. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, other than the remnants of Newton and the low pressure near 13.5N101W, weak high pressure will dominate the northern waters through the week, while the slow moving cold front attempts to move into the NW waters late tonight before lifting back northwest or dissipating. The moderate to fresh southerly winds and 7-9 ft seas south of the monsoon trough will diminish and subside towards the end of the week, then increase again Sat as mixed SE and SW swell moving into the region. $$ Lewitsky