000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272132 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Sep 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An elongated area of low pressure located offshore of the southern coasts of Oaxaca and Guerrero, Mexico continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the offshore waters. Environmental conditions appear conducive for improved organization, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of this week, as this system moves westward to west-northwestward across the waters of southern Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a high chance through the next 5 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 14N90W to 11.5N116W to 09N134W. The ITCZ axis extends from 09N135W to beyond 09.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 13.5N E of 94W, and from 08N to 19.5N between 92W and 107W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10.5N between 107W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are blowing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon, then become fresh easterly winds farther offshore and to the west of 97W. Elsewhere, weak high pressure prevails well offshore of Baja California, and is producing moderate NW-N winds across the Baja California Norte waters, and gentle to moderate winds offshore Baja California Sur. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are mainly 5-6 ft in S to SW swell across the open waters, except to 7 ft offshore Baja California Norte in NW swell. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California north of the entrance. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across much of the offshore waters from Tehuantepec to Colima. For the forecast, fresh strong N to NE winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will to pulse to strong at night through the week and into the weekend, and may reach near gale force Thu and Fri nights. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds will continue to dominate the Baja California Norte offshore waters through mid- week as weak high pressure persists well offshore. The broad area of low pressure described above in the special features section will potentially bring increasing winds and seas across the SW Mexico waters into the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail to the south of 12N this afternoon, except gentle to moderate just offshore Guatemala and El Salvador. Seas are 6-7 ft in southerly swell offshore Colombia, and 6-8 ft elsewhere, except to 9 ft offshore of Guatemala. Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend offshore from western Panama to the Gulf of Fonseca. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will prevail offshore southern Colombia and Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere, becoming NE-E from the Papagayo region northward this weekend. Seas of 6-8 ft will dominate the waters through Thu before subsiding slightly Fri. Seas will build offshore Guatemala by the end of the week due to an extended gap wind event currently developing across the Tehuantepec region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The 1008 mb remnant low of Newton is located near 14.5N121.5W. Convection continues near this low, with scattered moderate to strong convection within 90 nm of the center, mainly in the northern semicircle. A surface trough extends from 19N139W to 12N128W. High pressure of 1021 mb is north of the trough near 28N135W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and 5-6 ft seas in mixed swell are under the high north of 23N and west of 125W. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds are northeast of the trough and the remnants of Newton, to 24N and east of 120W. Seas there are 6-7 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 7-9 ft are south of the monsoon trough to the Equator between 90W and 125W, and locally strong winds from 05N to 08N between 104W and 119W. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere, and locally to 8 ft along 03.4S. For the forecast, the remnant low of Newton will continue to move westward and flare up with convection through Thu. Fresh to locally strong winds with seas around 8 ft will prevail within 120 nm across the NW semicircle during the time. Otherwise, weak high pressure will dominate the northern waters through the week, while a dissipating cold front moves into the NW waters late Wed and stalls near 29N by Fri. The moderate to fresh southerly winds and 7-9 ft seas south of the monsoon trough will diminish and subside towards the end of the week, then increase again Sat as mixed SE and SW swell moving into the region. $$ Stripling