000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271611
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Sep 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1510 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 13.5N91W to 09N135W. The
ITCZ axis extends from 09N135W to beyond 09.5N140W. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N E of 89W,  
from 07.5N to 16N between 89W and 106W, and from 06N to 10.5N 
between 106W and 120W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are blowing across the
western half of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, weak high
pressure prevails well offshore of Baja California, and is
producing moderate NW-N winds across the Baja California Norte
waters, and gentle to moderate winds offshore Baja California 
Sur. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are mainly 5-6 ft
in S to SW swell across the open waters, except to 7 ft offshore
Baja California Norte in NW swell. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf 
of California north of the entrance. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms continue across much of the offshore waters from
Tehuantepec to Colima.

For the forecast, fresh strong N to NE winds across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will to pulse to strong at night through the week 
and into the weekend. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds will 
continue to dominate the Baja California Norte offshore waters 
through mid-week as weak high pressure persists well offshore. A
broad area of low pressure may develop offshore of southern and 
southwestern Mexico by the end of the week, potentially bringing 
increasing winds and seas across the SW Mexico waters into the 
weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail to the south of
12N this morning, except gentle to moderate just offshore 
Guatemala and El Salvador. Seas are 5-7 ft in southerly swell 
offshore Colombia, and 6-7 ft elsewhere, except to 8 ft offshore
Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, and across the outer waters of
Guatemala. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are offshore 
western Colombia to Costa Rica waters.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will
prevail offshore southern Colombia and Ecuador to the Galapagos
Islands, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere, becoming NE-E
from the Papagayo region northward this weekend. Seas of 5-7 ft
will dominate the waters, except to 8 ft offshore Ecuador to the
Galapagos Islands through mid-week. Seas will build offshore 
Guatemala by the end of the week due to a gap wind event in the 
Tehuantepec region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The 1008 mb remnant low of Newton is located near 14.5N121W.
Convection continues to flare up near this low, with scattered 
moderate to strong convection within 90 nm of the center, mainly 
in the northern semicircle. A surface trough extends from 
20N139W to 13N127W. High pressure of 1019 mb is north of the 
trough near 28N134W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and 5-6
ft seas in mixed swell are under the high north of 24N and west 
of 119W. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds are northeast of 
the trough to 120W or so, along with 6-7 ft seas. Moderate to 
fresh southerly winds and seas of 7-10 ft are south of the 
monsoon trough to the Equator between 90W and 120W, locally 
strong winds from 06N to 11N between 97W and 104W. Gentle to 
moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere, locally to 8 ft
along 03.4S.

For the forecast, some slow development of the remnant low of
Newton is possible over the next couple of days as it moves 
generally westward over the open eastern Pacific waters. By late 
this week, environmental conditions are expected to become 
unfavorable for further development. A broad area of low pressure
south of the southern coast of Mexico has environmental 
conditions conducive for gradual development, and a tropical 
depression could form by the end of this week while the system 
moves generally westward to west-northwestward off the coast of 
southern and southwestern Mexico. This system has a low chance of
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance 
through 5 days. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the 
northern waters through the week, while a dissipating cold front 
stalls near 30N by Thu. The moderate to fresh southerly winds and
7-10 ft seas south of the monsoon trough will diminish and 
subside towards the end of the week.

$$
Stripling