000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Sep 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 13N94W to 10N120W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 10.5N between 84W and 88W, from 07N to 12N between 93W and 117W, and from 12N to 16N between 94W and 99W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 77W and 81W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh northerly winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds are offshore Baja California Norte with gentle to moderate winds offshore Baja California Sur. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are mainly 5-6 ft in S-SW swell across the open waters, except to 7 ft offshore Baja California Norte in NW swell. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California north of the entrance. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas. For the forecast, fresh N to NE winds will to pulse tonight in the region of Tehuantepec, increasing to strong speeds Tue night and continuing through the week and into the weekend. Moderate to fresh NW winds will continue to dominate the Baja California Norte offshore waters through mid-week. A broad area of low pressure may develop offshore southern and southwestern Mexico by the end of the week, potentially bringing increasing winds and seas into the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail, except gentle to moderate just offshore Guatemala and El Salvador. Seas are 4-7 ft in southerly swell offshore Colombia, and 5-7 ft elsewhere, except to 8 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are offshore northern Colombia to near the Papagayo region. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will prevail offshore southern Colombia and Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere, becoming NE-E from the Papagayo region northward this weekend. Seas of 4-7 ft will dominate the waters, except to 8 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through mid-week. Seas may build offshore Guatemala by the end of the week due to a gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The 1010 mb remnant low of Newton is located near 15.5N119.5W with scattered moderate to strong convection within 90 nm of the center, mainly in the northwest semicircle. A surface trough extends from 23N140W to 15N127W. High pressure is north of the trough centered near 29N135W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and 4-5 ft seas in mixed swell are under the high north of 27N and west of 130W. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds are northeast of the trough to 120W, along with 6-7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 7-10 ft are south of the monsoon trough to the Equator between 90W and 120W. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere, locally to 8 ft along 03.4S. For the forecast, the remnant low of Newton will dissipate to a trough within the next day or so, with associated winds and seas diminishing and subsiding. High pressure will dominate the northern waters through the week, while a dissipating cold front stalls near 30N by Thu. The moderate to fresh southerly winds and 7-10 ft seas south of the monsoon trough will diminish and subside towards the end of the week. Fairly tranquil marine conditions may prevail across the open waters by the end of the week and into the weekend. $$ Lewitsky