000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260146 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Sep 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 12N87W to 15N95W to 11N102W to 11N125W to 13N136W. The ITCZ axis extends from 13N136W to beyond 14N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 82W and 90W, and from 12N to 16N between 137W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 96W and 106W, from 07N to 10.5N between 112W and 118W, from 09.5N to 11N between 120W and 128W, and from 10N to 13N between 130W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds are offshore Baja California Norte. Moderate NW winds are offshore Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft in S-SW swell, except NW swell offshore Baja California Norte, and 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. Scattered thunderstorms are noted along and just offshore southwestern Mexico. For the forecast, moderate NW winds will continue to dominate the Baja California Norte offshore waters through early week, locally fresh offshore Baja California Norte. Fresh N to NE winds will continue to pulse at night in the region of Tehuantepec, increasing to strong speeds Tue night and continuing through the week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough south of 05N or across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters, with seas in the 5 to 8 ft range, except 4-7 ft offshore Colombia. North of 05N, winds are mainly gentle to moderate, with seas of 5-6 ft in S-SW swell. Scattered thunderstorms are noted along the coast and just offshore from Colombia northward. For the forecast, moderate to fresh S to SW winds will prevail between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Tue, while southerly swell continues to propagate across the region. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate by the middle of the week, then back to moderate to fresh for the end of the week. Seas to 8 ft are expected through the middle of the week in southerly swell. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The 1010 mb remnant low of Newton is located near 18N117.5W with no deep convection present. Winds are fresh to strong with seas of 7-9 ft, highest on the northwest side. A 1013 mb low is west- northwest of Newton near 21N130.5W along a trough from 16N to 26N. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 6-8 ft are near this feature, mainly north of 20N. Weak high pressure is elsewhere north of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas in SE-S swell prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, except 4-6 ft north of 26N and west of 120W where there is mixed northerly and southerly swell. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 7-9 ft in southerly swell are south of the monsoon trough to the Equator east of 110W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 6-7 ft seas are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough, except to 8 ft along 03.4S. For the forecast, the remnant low of Newton will dissipate to a trough through the early part of the week with associated winds and seas diminishing and subsiding. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the northern waters through the week. Pulses of cross-equatorial southerly swell will propagate across the forecast waters east of 120W, and maintain seas ranging from 6-10 ft south of 10N through Tue night, along with moderate to fresh southerly winds. Fairly tranquil marine conditions may prevail across the open waters by the end of the week. $$ Lewitsky