000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250918 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Sep 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0910 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Depression Newton is centered near 19.4N 115.6W at 25/0900 UTC moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas to 9 ft within 60 nm NW semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is from 19N to 21N between 114W and 116W. On the forecast track, a gradual turn towards the WSW is expected by this evening followed by a turn toward the SW early Monday. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. Slow weakening is anticipated once Newton becomes a post-tropical remnant low, possibly as soon as later today or tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to 11N103W to 15N114W to 12N130W to 11N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is across the Nicaragua, El Salvador and Chiapas, Mexico offshore waters. Scattered moderate convection is across the Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters and from 08N to 15N between 111W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on T.D. Newton. Aside from Tropical Depression Newton, moderate to locally fresh NW winds are across the Baja California Norte offshore waters while light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere in the Baja California Sur offshore waters. Seas along the Baja peninsula are in the 4 to 6 ft range in mixed SW and NW swell. In the Gulf of California, light variable winds prevail with seas to 3 ft. Fresh gap winds are pulsing in the region of Tehuantepec with seas to 6 ft. Gentle to locally moderate NW winds are across the remainder SW Mexican offshore waters with seas to 6 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, Newton will move to 19.0N 116.6W this afternoon, become a remnant low and move to 17.8N 117.9W Mon morning, 16.4N 119.2W Mon afternoon, 15.0N 120.7W Tue morning, 13.7N 122.3W Tue afternoon, and dissipate Wed morning. Newton will continue to move farther west and then southwest away from the Baja California Sur offshore waters today. Moderate NW winds will continue to dominate the Baja California Norte offshore waters through early next week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue to pulse at night in the region of Tehuantepec, increasing to fresh to strong speeds Mon night into Tue and continuing through the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough S of 05N or across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. North of 05N winds are mainly light to gentle and variable, except in the areas of strong convection in Nicaragua and El Salvador offshore zones where gusty winds are likely. Seas N of the monsoon trough range between 5 to 6 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, winds between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador will increase to fresh S to SW winds today as southerly swell continue to propagate across the region. Seas to 8 ft are expected with this swell through Mon when winds are forecast to gradually diminish back to moderate speeds. Winds will further diminish to gentle to moderate by the middle of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features above for details on T.D. Newton. Weak low pressure is centered near 20N127W with moderate to locally fresh NE winds approximately within 120 nm in the NW semicircle of the low center, where seas are up to 7 ft. This feature is forecast to open into a trough today before dissipating tonight. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W with seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with seas to 9 ft in southerly swell. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the northern forecast waters through mid-week. Pulses of cross-equatorial S to SW swell will propagate across the forecast waters east of 120W, and maintain seas to 9 ft along the equator through Thu. Winds south of the monsoon trough will freshen E of 120W by Tue and continue through the week. $$ Ramos