000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240403 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Sep 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Newton is centered near 18.6N 111.9W at 24/0300 UTC moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas to 12 ft within the area of strongest winds. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 18N to 20N between 110W and 113W. On the forecast track, Newton is expected to turn to the southwest in 24 to 36 hours. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Newton is expected to dissipate in 72 hours. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N89W to 12N100W, then resumes SW of Tropical Storm Newton near 13N114W to 12N122W to 10N137W. The ITCZ begins near 10N137W and continues beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is in the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Panama, from 10N to 15N between 107W and 130W, and from 08N to 14N between 129W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on T.S. Newton. The remnant low of Madeline is centered near 21N122W with fresh NE winds within 120 nm in the NW semicircle of the low center, where seas are up to 7 ft. Outside of Newton, gentle to locally moderate NW winds are along the Baja California peninsula offshore waters with seas to 6 ft in NW swell. Light variable winds are along the Gulf of California with seas to 3 ft, seas higher at the entrance of the gulf. Fresh gap winds are pulsing in Tehuantepec with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are across the remainder SW Mexican offshore waters with seas to 6 ft. For the forecast, Newton will move to 19.0N 113.0W Sat morning, 19.3N 114.6W Sat evening, weaken to a tropical depression near 19.1N 116.0W Sun morning, 18.5N 117.3W Sun evening, become a remnant low and move to 17.7N 118.6W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon evening. As Newton moves away from the Baja California Sur offshore waters this weekend, moderate NW winds will develop in the Baja California Norte offshore waters, continuing through early next week. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue to pulse at night in the region of Tehuantepec, increasing to fresh to strong Tue and continuing through early next weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters, while light and variable winds are north of the trough. Seas are 5-7 ft in southerly swell across the offshore waters. For the forecast, little chance in the current pattern is expected. Winds between the Galapagos and Ecuador will pulse to fresh S to SW winds Sun as southerly swell continue to propagate across the region. Seas to 8 ft are expected with this swell through Mon when winds are forecast to gradually diminish back to moderate speeds. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features above for details on T.S. Newton. Outside of the remnants of Madeline, gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail N of the monsoon trough with seas of 5-6 ft. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with seas to 9 ft. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the northern forecast waters through the weekend. Pulses of cross-equatorial S to SW swell will propagate across the forecast waters east of 130W, and maintain seas to 9 ft along the equator through Mon. The remnants of Madeline will move westward and gradually weaken before dissipating Sat. Winds south of the monsoon trough will freshen E of 120W by early next week. $$ Ramos