000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232131 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Sep 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Newton is centered near 18.2N 111.3W at 23/2100 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas to 14 ft are expected at this time within the area of strongest winds. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 17N to 20N between 109W and 112W. On the forecast track, a west- northwest motion is expected to continue for the next couple days. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Newton is expected to dissipate in 72 hours. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N89W to 17N100W, then resumes SW of Tropical Storm Newton near 14N114W to 10N138W. The ITCZ begins near 10N138W and continues beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 15N between 94W and 103W, from 11N to 16N between 111W and 117W, and from 10N to 15N between 123W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on T.S. Newton. The remnant low of Madeline is centered near 21N122W with fresh NE winds within 120 nm in the northern semicircle of the low center, where seas remain near 8 ft. Outside of Newton, recent scatterometer data depicts light to gentle NW winds along the Baja California peninsula, where seas to 6 ft in NW swell prevail. Light variable winds are along the Gulf of California with seas to 3 ft, seas higher at the entrance of the gulf. Fresh gap winds are pulsing in Tehuantepec with seas to 7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are across the remainder SW Mexican offshore waters with seas to 6 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Newton will move to 18.6N 112.4W Sat morning, 19.0N 114.0W Sat afternoon, weaken to a tropical depression near 19.0N 115.5W Sun morning, 18.5N 116.9W Sun afternoon, become a remnant low and move to 17.8N 118.2W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon afternoon. As Newton moves away from the Baja California Sur offshore waters this weekend, moderate NW winds will develop in the Baja California Norte offshore waters, continuing through early next week. Fresh N to NE winds will continue to pulse at night in the region of Tehuantepec through the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters, while light and variable winds are north of the trough. Seas are 5-9 ft in southerly swell across the offshore waters. For the forecast, little chance in the current pattern is expected. Winds between the Galapagos and Ecuador will pulse to fresh S to SW winds Sun as southerly swell continue to propagate across the region. Seas to 9 ft and prevail through Mon when winds are forecast to diminish back to moderate speeds. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features above for details on T.S. Newton. Outside of the remnants of Madeline, N of the monsoon trough, recent scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevailing, with seas of 5-6 ft. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with seas to 9 ft. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the northern forecast waters through the weekend. Pulses of cross-equatorial S to SW swell will propagate across the forecast waters east of 130W, and maintain seas to 9 ft along the equator through Mon. The remnants of Madeline will move westward and gradually weaken before dissipating Sat. Winds south of the monsoon trough will freshen E of 120W by early next week. $$ ERA