000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230922 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Sep 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Newton is centered near 18.1N 110.4W at 23/0900 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas to 15 ft. Numerous moderate convection is noted from 17N to 19N between 108W and 110W. On the forecast track, a west-northwest motion is expected to continue for the next couple days along with some slow weakening. Newton is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low on Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N89W to 14N94W to 16N100W, then resumes SW of Tropical Storm Newton near 14N115W to 12N124W to 13N131W to 10N138W. The ITCZ begins near 10N138W and continues beyond 10N140W. Numerous moderate convection is from 13N to 16N between 94W and 97W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 12N between 92W and 105W, and from 11N to 15N between 110W and 117W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Newton near 18.1N 110.4W 1000 mb at 2 AM PDT moving WNW at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Please see the Special Features section for further details on T.S. Newton. The remnant low of Madeline is centered near 22N119W with fresh to locally strong NE winds within 120 nm NW quadrant of the low center where seas remain 8 to 9 ft. Outside of T.S. Newton, recent scatterometer data show light to gentle NW winds along the Baja California peninsula where seas to 6 ft in NW swell prevail. Light variable winds are along the Gulf of California with seas to 3 ft, seas higher at the entrance of the gulf. Fresh to strong gap winds are occurring in Tehuantepec with seas to 8 ft. Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds are across the remainder SW Mexican offshore waters with seas to 6 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, Newton will move to 18.4N 111.5W this afternoon, 19.1N 113.1W Sat morning, 19.7N 114.8W Sat afternoon, 19.8N 116.3W Sun morning, weaken to a remnant low near 19.2N 117.7W Sun afternoon, and 18.1N 118.9W Mon morning. Newton will dissipate early Tue. As Newton moves away from the Baja California Sur offshore waters Sat night, moderate to locally NW winds will develop in the Baja California Norte offshore waters, continuing through Tue next week. Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE winds will continue to pulse at night in the region of Tehuantepec through the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters, while light and variable winds are north of the trough. Seas are 5-7 ft in southerly swell across the offshore waters. For the forecast, little chance in the current pattern is expected. Winds between the Galapagos and Ecuador will increase to mainly fresh S to SW winds Sat night as southerly swell continue to propagate across the region. Seas will build to 8 ft and prevail through Mon when winds are forecast to diminish back to moderate speeds. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features above for details on T.S. Newton forecast to move off the Baja California Sur offshore waters and into the high seas waters by Sat night. Outside of the remnants of Madeline, a weak pressure gradient prevails north of the monsoon trough, with mainly gentle to moderate winds prevailing. Seas of 5-6 ft prevail north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with seas in the 5-8 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the northern forecast waters through the weekend. Pulses of cross-equatorial S to SW swell will propagate across the forecast waters east of 130W, and maintain seas to 8 ft along the equator through Mon. The remnants of Madeline will move westward and gradually weaken through Fri. Fresh winds will persist across the NW semicircle of the low, with seas of 8 to 9 ft in NE swell. Winds south of the monsoon trough will freshen E of 120W by early next week. $$ Ramos